NIFTY – Bullish Reversal
NIFTY Technical Analysis 06/02/2012 – 10/02/2012
Last week I had
suggested to watch NIFTY 5240 level as a ‘turning point'. It is important to note that during the week
NIFTY index has crossed this critical level and has managed to break the
falling channel. NIFTY struggled for entire year 2011 inside this falling
channel. However, during this week index has successfully closed above the year
long resistance line. This is a strong bullish reversal signal for the coming
days.
Market seems to be taking RBI’s decision of slashing the CRR (cash
reserve ratio) very positively. This policy decision has eased the tight
liquidity system. The other positive cues are FII inflow, dollar index and
global news. FIIs have been net buyers since 2012 has begun. The FII inflows
suggest that the sentiments are turning positive and can boost the
participation from retail investor soon. Also, .the rupee is trading under 49
against the dollar. The
What’s
next? Index has given Bullish Reversal signal on
Friday closing basis. However, it is important for Index to sustain above the
breakout line for confirmation. Its being 5 consecutive weeks market is in
green. So there could be some correction in the beginning of the coming week.
As you can see in the technical chart, though index has given strong bullish
breakout it may face some minor resistance in the region of 5400. Above 5400 index can go up like rocket up to
5700. As per the options buildup 5200 is a strong
support zone for the coming week.
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NIFTY – Turning Point at 5240
NIFTY Technical Analysis 30/01/2012 – 03/02/2012
Last week I had
written that NIFTY index will reach 5140 level before expiry. This was
confidently predicted based the Options buildup seen in the derivatives
segment. I had also advised to watch RBI
monetary policy for the next cues and any positive surprise form the monetary
policy would boost positive sentiments for February 2012 series.
What happened during the week? During the week NIFTY index achieved its target of 5140 without any
hiccup. On Wednesday RBI slashed the CRR
(cash reserve ratio) by 50 basis points to 5.5%. The cut is
expected to infuse Rs. 32,000 crore into the system easing the tight liquidity system. As
expected market acknowledge this decision positively and closed the week at
just above 5200. However, on Friday closing basis it has form “Long Leg Dragon
Fly Doji” just near its 200 day simple moving average resistance.
What’s next? As you can see in the
technical chart, NIFTY index has crossed the major hurdle of 200 EMA and now
testing 200 SMA at 5200. However it is important to note that the Index is very
near to the resistance line of the Falling Channel. NIFTY is trading inside
this channel for almost 1 year since it made a high of 6336 in Nov’2010. Since
then It has made several attempts to break channel
this in the past but without success. It would be interesting to see if NIFTY
index can break this barrier this time. For the coming week level 5240 is a
very important. I see this level as major turning point for NIFTY index. If it
breaks the falling channel and sustains above this range then it will be a
major signal for Bullish Reversal. At the same if Index is unable to hold 5130
level which is its 200 EMA then it will again resume with its downward journey.
NIFTY – Time to Book Profits?
NIFTY Technical Analysis 23/01/2012 – 27/01/2012
Last week I had
shown Bullish Breakout on technical chart. It was predicted that crossing 61.8%
Fibonacci Retracement level at 4880 would easily induce NIFTY to reach its
first target of 5000. During the week NIFTY index behaved exactly as per the
technical chart and the cues from derivatives. Monday, Index closed just above
4880 and then bulls further strengthen their grip on the market. Index crossed
critical milestone of 5000 and closed the week just near 5050.
During the week Market was surprised and at the same time confused with
Reliance share buy back proposal. This, possibly the biggest share buyback
proposal in Indian stock market history, preempted that the company strongly
feels that its current share price is undervalued. However at the same time
some experts feel that the buyback proposal is being initiated to cushion the
stock price which has lost nearly 35% in last one year.
Coming week is
again crucial due to RBI monetary policy on Tuesday, 24th. There are
mixed view on rate cuts. Any positive surprise from RBI in the form of rate
cuts (which is very unlikely) will boost the positive sentiments for February
series.
What’s
next? Derivatives data on Friday closing basis shows that there is still some
steam remaining till January 2012 F&O expiry, which is on this Wednesday.
There is a good chance that index may hit 5140 level by expiry. However, as you
can see on the technical chart, there are multiple trend line resistances and
mighty 200 day moving average in the range of 5100-5140.
Therefore it is advisable for traders to start booking profits on long
positions as NIFTY approaches this trading zone and wait for the next cue
before start building short positions.
NIFTY – Bullish Breakout?
NIFTY Technical Analysis 16/01/2012 – 20/01/2012
Last week I had predicted positive week for NIFTY index with target 4900.
This was simply based on the technical analysis and peculiar stock market
behavior. As expected Index reached exactly near 4900 level, On Monday, NIFTY
index opened the week at 4758 and once again bulls came for the rescue at its
life support level of 4700. As usual Market once again deceived the majority
who was extremely bearish about the market.
During the week NIFTY index gave technical breakout on a daily chart.
However, market was unable to cheer due to heavy fall in IT stocks on Thursday.
IT big guns TCS & Infosys both have fallen with alarming warning signals. A
big gap down opening and further fall in price with huge volumes indicates that
there is some serious bad news is on the card for IT stocks. Time will tell
what the bad news is!
What’s next? Though technically NIFTY index has given a breakout on daily chart, it
is finding it difficult to sustain above 4880 level. This 4880 level is 61.8%
Fibonacci retracement level of the current fall from 5100 to 4531. Candlestick
chart has formed “Doji“ candles on last 3 consecutive
days indicating consolidation after breakout. Put/Call Ratio is also still
hovering around 1 indicating consolidation. So, though there is a technical
breakout, I expect some bit of profit booking at the current levels. From pure
trading perspective NIFTY index has good support in the region of 4750 for the
coming week. Crossing of 61.8% retracement level at 4880 can take Index up to
5000 levels as per the option build up in derivatives segment.
NIFTY – Struggling for Survival!
NIFTY Technical Analysis 09/01/2012 – 13/01/2012
For yet
another consecutive week NIFTY Index struggled hard to survive above the life
line support at 4700. NIFTY index which comprises of 50 top guns of Indian
stock market and who decides the faith of our equity market are under
tremendous pressure to collectively keep index above the said lifeline level. Weekly chart shows that index found trend line
support after hitting 4530 three weeks back. The next two weeks Candlesticks
shows a tug of war between Bulls & Bears. We are seeing sharp recoveries
from 4600-4700 range.
What’s
next?. For the coming week
market is expected to open with positive bios. The Put/Call ratio increased
from 0.84 to 1.00 during the week. If this ratios moves up above 1.00 then
consider it as first positive signal from derivatives data. Key technical
indicators MFI is showing positive divergence on the chart. However, NIFTY
traders should keep in mind that the upper side is currently capped at 4900 and
weakness continues below 4700.
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NIFTY – Technical View Year 2012
(01-01-2012)
NIFTY
is systematically trading in a falling channel as shown above. In early 2012 It is expected to trade within this channel. As per the
trading cycles, NIFTY is likely to find a good support near 4350. Expect good
buying and a strong rally from this level. However, on must remember that the
gap zone of 3723-3905 is still open. As per the Technical Analysis theory this gap has to be
filled before next
NIFTY - 4700 is Trend Decider for the Week!
NIFTY Technical Analysis 26/12/2011 – 30/12/2011
Last week I had
warned about NIFTY index trading below the life line support at 4700. The
bearishness was clearly visible on Technical Chart. During the week NIFTY index
traded exactly as expected. It crashed up to 4531 and then bounced backed to
close just above the lifeline support near 4700.
This week there was no major news or event but still good demand for
Spanish bonds pulled the European & US markets up in the middle of the
week. The US GDP numbers come at 1.8 which was lower than expected however it
got offset by good news like unemployment numbers lowest in 3 years, consumer
confidence up from 64.4 to 69.9 etc.
What’s
next? Though index has closed in red on Friday, you
will notice that for last three consecutive days it has crossed previous day’s
high and at the same time has not gone below previous day’s lows. This is
raising some hopes for the coming week. NIFTY traders should keep in mind that
coming week is an expiry week for December 2011 F&O series. Options built
up shows tug of war between bulls & bears. Index is trying hard to survive
above the lifeline support at 4700. From pure trading point of view, below 4700
is again an opportunity to go short and at the same time above 4750 one can
take a quick benefit of the rally with 1st target of 4810 and then
the rise up to 4880. I suggest to closely watch
options data for the confirmation. Decline in 4800 Call OI would confirm taking
long position and decline in 4700 Put OI would give confirmation to go short.
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Index Below Lifeline 4700!
NIFTY Technical Analysis 19/12/2011 – 23/12/2011
At Last week I had
shown on a technical chart that how NIFTY index has started forming bearish
“Head & Shoulder” pattern with a neckline target of 4600. During the week
NIFTY behaved exactly as predicted on a technical chart. Monday, it opened just
above 4900
level and within few trading hours it broke the weekly support at 4840 level.
As predicted in last week’s article, it then tried to kiss 4700 within no time.
It finally reached to its neckline target of 4600 during last trading hours on
Friday and closed the week just below its lifeline level of 4700.
We must take a note of series of important events during the week. Monday
was bad IIP numbers. Industrial output data in October showed shocking
de-growth of 5.1% compared to previous month. Indian Rupee made yet another all
time low showing further weakness. Inflation numbers were good but market
doesn’t care about it. FOMC meet ended with no change in interest rates and RBI
followed the same signaling end of rate hike cycle at least for now.
What’s
next? As per the technical chart, NIFTY index has
closed the week just near the neckline target of 4600. The break below this
level is likely to press next panic button. Below 4600 the next target for
NIFTY index comes strait near to 4300 level. I have already warned about this
level in my previous articles. This 4300 level is 50% Fibonacci Retracement
level of the entire rally from 2250 in November 2008 to around 6340 in last
October 2010. Now the same lifeline at 4700 will act as a strong resistance in
the coming week. NIFTY Index must bounce back above 4700 and survive above this
for at least a week to raise any hopes. However looking at the current
scenarios this look thorny task!
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Rally post EU Summit?
NIFTY Technical Analysis - 12/12/2011 – 16/12/2011
At Last week I had
written about 5110 as a hurdle for NIFTY index considering 61.8% Fibonacci
Retracement of the current fall from 5400 to 4740.
This level actually proved to be a strong resistance during the week.
Wednesday, it tried to kiss this level twice. It made a high of 5099 and the
‘dead cat’ bounce fizzled form there.
The financial
markets across the globe were gearing up with high hopes from Euro summit.
However, draft summit agreement seeped out on Thursday and raised doubts on key
measures including letting the future rescue fund, the European Stability
Mechanism, and a long-term goal of issuing common euro zone bonds. The equity
markets went down and euro remained under pressure as investor doubt whether
Also, on domestic front government
is not in a position to pass any reforms. Bill for FDI in modern retail has
gone to cold storage. FDI in aviation and insurance is facing headwinds. Dollar
index is again up and Rupee is back above 52. The picture looks gloomier in
coming days.
What’s next? As you can see on a
technical chart, NIFTY index has begun forming bearish “Head & Shoulder”
pattern. The neckline target for this pattern comes to around 4600 level.
However, looking at the current volatility in the market NIFTY traders needs to
be very careful before taking any positions. Keep in mind that there a
“Spinning Candle” on Friday’s technical chart. Which means NIFTY index can
swing between 4700 and 5110 levels during the week. So, above 4920 it can again
bounce up to 5110 level and below 4840 it will go and touch 4700 within no
time. As stated earlier, 4700 is a lifeline for NIFTY index.
“Dead Cat” Bounce to Continue…
NIFTY Technical Analysis - 05/12/2011 – 09/12/2011
At last our equity
market witnessed much awaited bounce back! Two weeks back I had written about
expect a sudden “Dead Cat” bounce and it actually happened during this week.
NIFTY index gained 300+ point
and closed at week high i.e. 5050.
The US & Europe sky
rocketed during the week after central banks around the world slashed the cost
of borrowing dollars for European banks. Our market reacted to global rally. NIFTY index is once again back above the psychological level of 5000.
What’s
next? Coming week there is Euro summit on 9th
December. Investors are hoping for some decent announcement and actions in terms
of cut in interest rate, European Central Bank buying up bonds in troubled
countries etc. Equity market is gearing up in anticipation of this summit.
From Technical
angle NIFTY price chart & Options data buildup is showing further
continuation of the bounce. On Friday, index has closed above 50 Day EMA with
long green bullish Marubozu candle..
However, immediate hurdle is at 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement of the current fall
from 5400 to 4740 which is at 5110. Heavy Put writing along with unwinding in
5000 & 5100 Calls is a good sign.
NIFTY traders
should continue trading with long strategies for the coming week. If NIFTY
index crosses 61.8% retracement level at 5110 then it will easily reach up to
5220. During the week please watch OI interest for
5200Call option. If you notice further increase in OI for 5200 strike
price call option then only this level will confirm the resistance otherwise
expect further rise.
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Red Alert Below 4700
NIFTY Technical Analysis - 28/11/2011 – 02/12/2011
Last week I was
hoping that market may show some “Dead Cat” (false rise) bounce before it
continues with its further downside. However, to be on safe side I had
recommended NIFTY traders to take any long position only after index bounces
back inside the Bollinger Band. During the week market did not show much
strength to bounce back inside the Bollinger Band and continued with its
downside journey.
Technically
speaking NIFTY has breached important support level of 4720 and has made 2 year
low (4639). Important to note that Indian Rupee also made all
time low during the week. With Dollar Index strengthening it is
obvious that FIIs will take their money
out of equity market. However the
outflow from our market during this week was quite serious. I have been
cautioning Technical Analysis followers about NIFTY Index Falling Channel from
time to time. Index is now approaching the lower support level of this channel
which is near 4500.
What’s next? Now for the coming week psychological level 4700 is very important. On
Friday there was equal force from Option writers with heavy writing of 4700
strike price Put & 4800 strike price Call options writers. The highest build-up is seen at 4500
strike Put options.
This means close
below 4700 level will confirm the 1st target of 4500 near channel line support.
On upper side the resistance remains at 4800 and it would provide good
opportunity to add more short position if it bounces back to this level.
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NIFTY – Expect ‘Dead Cat’ bounce this week
Week ahead: 21/11/2011 – 25/11/2011
Last week I had
written about confirmed fall in NIFTY index right up to 4980. At the same time the resistance level given
for the week was 5220. During the week NIFTY index traded exactly as predicted
using Technical Analysis chart. It opened the week just near the resistance
level, kissed 5229 and after that there was free fall up to 4838.
On Technical Chart
the fall was quite visible and break below 5000 level on Thursday intensified
the selling pressure. NIFTY index made a low of 4838 but toward the end of
Friday trading session it raised some hopes for the coming week!
What’s next? If you look at the
technical chart carefully, you will notice that NIFTY index has slipped out of ‘Bollinger Band” and has formed
bullish candle sticks commonly known as “Hammer”. This gives some positive
hopes for the coming week. Put/Call ratio nearly
touched the oversold zone of 0.80 and has come back to 1.00 levels on
Friday. This again is a positive sign for the coming week. However, NIFTY
traders should wait for index to bounce back inside the band before taking any
new long positions for the week. The technical bounce back levels are 5000 and
crossover would take index up to 5160. This week’s low of 4838 is likely to act
as support for the coming week.
NIFTY – Weakness if remains below 5200
Week ahead: 14/10/2011 – 18/11/2011
NIFTY index not
crossing it’s 200 day EMA @5330 and at the same time breaking support line of
5200 level confirms negative sentiments for the coming week. As you know, last
week my advice to NIFTY traders was to patiently watch and trade on these
technical levels. NIFTY tested patients for the whole week and finally broke
5200 support line on Friday. It then made a low of 5142 and closed at 5168
which is below 5200 support line. Technically speaking NIFTY is once again back
in the bearish zone.
On global front,
weakness in Europe continued due to political instability in
On domestic front, fear expressed by SBI Chairman on rise in bad loans
dragged SBI and market sentiments down though bank announced a 12 % rise in net
profit. Decline in IIP number (1.98% vs. 4.1% in previous month) is failing to
give any positive cues for the coming days.
What’s next? NIFTY Chart looks tiered
after reaching near upper band of the falling channel. Close below 5200
confirms continuation of the downward journey. For the coming week NIFTY index
1st target is around 5060 and below this the 2nd target is near 4980. Level
5220 is likely to act as resistance during
the week.
NIFTY – All Eyes & Attention on
Week ahead: 08/10/2011 – 11/11/2011
More than Technical
or Fundamentals Greece is taking all financial market participants for a ride.
Europe and rest of the globe including
NIFTY index too
felt the heat because of the above but showed resilience and managed to protect
the critical support level at 5200. This shows there is still good strength to
go up and test the falling channel line at 5470 – 5500.
On technical side, after giving bullish “island reversal” breakout NIFTY
index faced first hurdle at 200 day SMA (Simple Moving Average) line. During the week it tested 5200 level as
support line (from which it previously gave breakout).
What’s next? As per the price chart 200 EMA is at
5334. Index can go up sharply if it is able to cross this level. As per the
buildup in derivatives segments NIFTY index is forming its trading range
between 5200 and 5400. On Friday it has shown some positive symptom for the
coming week. NIFTY traders must watch 5340
and 5200 level. Above 5340 it’s a buy call for NIFTY
future and if Index breaks 5200 then it’s a strong Sell signal. So be
patient and take full advantage by trading on these technical levels.
NIFTY – Bullish “
Week ahead: 31/10/2011 – 04/11/2011
Last
week I had written about NIFTY trend line resistance at 5140 and support near
5000 level provided by 50 day SMA. It was recommended to watch for the breakout
and take advantage of very fast price movement on either side. As expected,
after crossing 5140 level NIFTY index shoot up like rocket and hit 5384 levels
within 3 trading sessions.
The week was full
of global and domestic news. RBI hiked repo rate by 25bps however it also
signaled that this could be the end of the rate hike which brought cheer to the
market. Also, on Thursday the EU summit became completely in favour of
On technical chart, NIFTY opened directly above the gap zone of 5230-5320
on Friday. During intraday session it came down near to 5320 and found strong
support. In a process it has formed “
What’s next? NIFTY Technical chart is
showing lot of strength. However you will notice that the Index is still inside
the falling channel. It is approaching towards strong Trend Line Resistance
coming from the top. NIFTY must clear this last hurdle at 5470-5500 to break
out of the falling channel and resume with its bullish uptrend. For the coming
week I expect NIFTY index to continue with this rally till it hits the upper band of Falling Chanel at 5470-5500. Derivative data is providing further positive cues for the coming week.
As per the Call/Put Options buildup, 5500 level seems to be achievable on the
technical chart. The support for the week is around 5300 level. My advice to
NIFTY traders is to continue playing on long side and start booking profits as
index starts approaching 5500 level.
NIFTY – Watch 5140 & 5000 for either side breakout
Week ahead: 24/10/2011 – 28/10/2011
Last week I was
expecting NIFTY to cross the resistance near 5140 and attempt to kiss the gap
zone between 5230-5320. It did made an attempt to cross this barrier on Monday
opening session however the strength was just not enough to sustain above the
resistance. On Wednesday, it made another attempt to cross 5140 but could close
just near 5139.
Derivatives data, which had given a strong signal on last to last Friday,
started taking ‘U’ on start of the week. NIFTY suddenly started witnessing heavy
unwinding of put option along the strong buildup of call option @ 5200 strike
price. As usual the FII cash flow continued to be in negative zone through out
the week.
What’s
next? Market is struggling hard to find the next
direction. The Put/Call
ratio is ranging between 1.2 and 1.0 range
indicating neither strength nor weakness.
Coming
week is an expiry week for October 2011 F&O series with only 3 trading
sessions. Market is expecting that RBI would take a pause in interest rate hike
when it announces its monetary policy on expiry day. So one can expect lot of
volatility on Tuesday, 25th. Market will react negatively if there
is any further rate hike. The highest open interest is at 5200 strike price
call options. This means the expiry will be below this level.
However, I would advise NIFTY trader to closely
watch change in OI for 5000Put option & 5200Call options. Trade on a long
side if you start noticing unwinding of Call options and better to go short if OI
for Put declines. The trend line resistance is at 5140 and support provided by
50 day SMA is near 5000. Index can move very fast on either side if it breaks
any of these levels.
NIFTY – Approaching Towards 5230-5320
Week ahead: 17/10/2011 – 21/10/2011
Last week, I had
given an indication of positive momentum written about psychological short term
reversal @5000. I had advised NIFTY traders to take long position, if index
crosses 4940.
What
happened during the week? As expected, after
crossing the barrier of 4940 on Monday morning session, NIFTY index started
moving upward gracefully. On Friday it touched and closed exactly near the
trend line resistance as shown the given chart. Now the question is whether
NIFTY will cross the weekly high of 5141and give another short term upside
breakout?
What’s
next? Derivatives data is giving clear indications
of NIFTY breaking the trend line resistance at 5140 and will make an attempt to
fill the gap zone between 5229 and
5334.
On economic
front, Market is expecting that RBI would take a pause in interest rate hike
and therefore rising on hopes. Also note that there is no net inflow from FIIs
yet. FII indicator is till negative. Technically speaking this is just a retracement of the
current fall from 5700 to 4720 and the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement of this fall
is 5330. This level
co-insides with a Gap which is highlighted in the chart. My advice to
NIFTY traders would be to hold your long positions with first target of 5230
followed by 5330
NIFTY – Psychological turning
point @ 5000?
Week ahead: 10/10/2011 – 14/10/2011
Last week I had
mentioned that NIFTY index must protect the critical level of 4720 to
prevent any panic selling. During the week Index went down exactly near this
level and made low of 4728. On news front, Moody downgraded SBI’s bank
financial strength rating causing dip in Indian market. At the same time ECB
(European Central Bank) offered another lifeline to commercial banks and Indian
market too reacted with a big gap up opening on Friday.
On Friday NIFTY
opened with a gap of nearly 130 points above its previous day close. However,
it was neither able to move forward after big gap up opening nor it slide down
from the top significantly. This means there was neither buying force during
rest of the day nor there any selling pressure towards the end. Technically
speaking it has formed a “Doji
Candlestick” on a technical chart
indicating indecision for the coming week.
What’s next? Derivatives data shows that the option writers are favoring writing Put
options which indicates that market may continue to move up in the early week.
However, you will notice that the Trend Line resistance is at around 5000
level. This is an important psychological level. It will act as a short term
turning point if Index manages to close above 5000. In that case index will
again try to attempt to fill the gap between 5229 and 5334. NIFTY traders must remember that on Friday
there is “Doji Candlesticks” on a technical chart indicating indecision in the
current trend. So it is advisable to wait for the next decision making candle
to be formed on Monday or Tuesday. Play on long side if Index crosses 4940 and
go short if index is not able to hold 4830.
NIFTY – What to expect in October 2011?
Week ahead: 03/10/2011 – 07/10/2011
As expected market
continued with its downtrend and made another low of 4758 on weekly basis.This was very close to the support level of 4720.
EFSF (European Financial Stability Facility) upgrade approval progress by
Euro-Region countries provided some fuel to financial markets to bounce back
during the week. But FIIs were net sellers to the tune of 1000+ crores each on three consecutive days. This is quite an
alarming signal for the October 2011 series.
What’s
next? On Global front, Ben Bernanke, US Federal Reserve
Chairman, will be testifying in
The technical outlook for the October 2011 series continues to be
bearish. You will notice that NIFTY has been trading in perfect price channel.
In January 2011 Index entered into down trend when it was not able cross to
previous high and broke previous months low near 5800. Since then market is in
down trend as long as NIFTY continues to trade within the “Falling Channel’.
The weekly resistance level is at 5050. Breakout above this level may induce
index to try and fill the gap between 5230 & 5323. On downside – 4720 level
must remain protected in October series to prevent any panic selling in the
market.
NIFTY – NIFTY – No sign of relief yet!
Week ahead: 26/09/2011 – 30/09/2011
As written in the
previous week’s article, NIFTY index could barely reach near 5200 level and
crashed from there. It did try to find support near 5000 level but could not
succeed to hold it for long. I had advised NIFTY traders to go short near 5200
with the 1st target of 5000. I had also advised to watch the Open
Interest (OI) for NIFTY 5000 strike price Put option. On Thursday during the 1st
half of the trading session market started witnessing huge unwinding of OI at
this strike price. This was a confirmed signal for the break below 5000 levels.
During the week NIFTY index made high of 5170, made low of 4830 and closed at
4865.
FIIs have given alarming signal during the week. They where net sellers
to the tune of 1300 crores on Thursday when NIFTY
index lost 200+ points & Sensex lost 700+ points on a single day. This was
the biggest fall since OCT ‘08 because of Feds gloomy outlook on
What’s next? There seems to be no sign of relief yet. As per the Technical Chart 4720
level for NIFTY index is very crucial. This is previous month’s
low made on 26th August. Derivatives data shows that the Option
Writers are unwinding their positions from 4800-4700 puts and shifting their
base to 4600. This means market is expected to go down further in the coming
week. The immediate support is near 4720 however this level looks very fragile
to me. The coming week is an expiry week for September 2011 series and I won’t
be surprise if NIFTY expiry comes below this level.
NIFTY – Crossing 5200 not so easy!
Week ahead: 12/09/2011 – 16/09/2011
As expected NIFTY started the week on a negative note with gap down
opening and made a low of 4911. During the week it then tried to move up in
anticipation of RBI monetary policy, expecting no change in the lending rate.
Index made a high of 5143 and closed the week at 5086. Level 5200 seems to be a tough challenge for NIFTY index in the near
term. It looks like with sharp decline in IIP numbers followed by Inflation
numbers and RBI’s decision to continue to increase the lending rate, market is
losing hopes and unable to sustain at any rise.
What’s next? The 50 day EMA is at 5184. As shown in the chart, NIFTY index was finding
good support in the region of 5200 in near past but broke this level in the 1st
week of August’11. This downside breakout was with a “gap”. Therefore this
region (5200) will act as a strong hurdle.
However for the coming week, the downside also seems to be very limited. My advise
to NIFTY traders is to monitor OI of 5000 strike Put option. The OI as on
Friday is close to 8.2 million. Further accumulation of OI would mean support
and any decline in this number would mean weakness. Level 5200 is a strong
resistance zone for the coming week. It is advisable to wind up long positions
if Index reaches near this level and start building short position with a 1st
target of 5000 for NIFTY index.
NIFTY - Pullback over with closing “Marubozu“
Week ahead: 12/09/2011 – 16/09/2011
I have been consistently holding bearish view about the market and
considering recent rally during last couple of weeks as relief rally in a
downtrend. On weekly basis I had given support level for NIFTY in a range of
4960-4910. During the week index made low of 4943, and took the support exactly
in the given range. It then rallied by 200+ points and made weekly high of
5169.
However, once again
we witnessed heavy selling pressure as NIFTY index started approaching the Gap
zone. On Friday NIFTY index closed the week with a bearish Marubozu candlestick. Index opened near high of the
week and closed near the lowest point of the day forming long bearish red
candlesticks on a technical chart. This is a bearish sign for the coming week.
What’s next? RBI will meet on Sept 16th to review its monetary policy. They
have already raised the key lending rate 11 times since March 2010 to fight
against inflation. Market will obviously react in a negative manner if there is
any further increase. On Technical chart, the Friday close is at the verge of
15 by 5 Displaced Moving Average line. Drop below this line would certainly
trigger more short selling and NIFTY index may try to
retest 4800 level. On derivatives side there was unwinding of Put options and
heavy writing at 5100-5200 strike Call options, which again indicates
bearishness for the coming week. Considering Technical & Derivatives data,
my advice to NIFTY traders would be to play with short-sell strategies for the
week.
NIFTY - Pullback may continue, if trades above 5110
Week ahead: 05/09/2011 – 09/09/2011
No mention of QE3 by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke was taken as
positive news by the financial market participants and it triggered a relief
rally during the week. Within a short trading week of 3 days, NIFTY index also
rallied up to 5100 mark and closed the week at 5040. It’s interesting to note
that the pullback during the week was exactly 38.2% retracement level of the
fall from 5740 to 4720. Friday morning it opened exactly near this level at
5107 and started facing selling pressure.
What’s next? Technically speaking now if index trades above 5110 then only this
pullback will continue up to 50% and 61.8% retracement level which is at 5230
and 5350 respectively. Incidentally you will also notice from the technical
chart that there is gap between 5323 and 5229. As per the Gap Theory price of
the security or index always tries to fill such trading gaps. However this kind
of price range acts as a resistance most of the time. The Derivatives data is also giving similar
cues with respect to resistance levels. There is a heavy call option writing at
5300 and 5400 strike price. Therefore these levels are likely to be strong
resistance levels for September 2011 F&O series.
In my opinion it would be a good opportunity for short term traders to
exit from long positions and start taking short positions as NIFTY index starts
approaching these resistance levels. The support for the week is in a range of
4960-4910. Below this level bears will once again push the bulls on back foot
and index can continue with its downtrend.
NIFTY - Target Achieved! Now watch 4778…
Week ahead: 29/08/2011 – 02/09/2011
Last week I had written about Fibonacci Retracement levels for NIFTY
index. I had asked to keep watch on 4778 which is 38.2% retracement of the
entire rally from 2252 to 6338. During the week Market has generated another
warning signal on the Technical Chart indicating further downside. Index made a
low of 4720 and closed the week at 4748 which is below the critical 38.2%
retracement level.
What happened during the week? As expected, during early part of the week NIFTY index showed some dead
cat bounce only to fill the gap which was formed on previous Friday. This gap
zone was between 4893-4932. Index could barely reach 4960 and got hammered by
the thirsty bears. Being an expiry week for August F&O series, option
writers ensured that NIFTY doesn’t go below 4800 till Thursday. However, index
is again back on its derailed track for further downside.
What’s next? On
technical chart there is further weakness below 4778. If NIFTY remains below
4800 in the coming week, then I have already given a target of 4300 which could
be achieved in September series itself. However, market always tries to deceive
the traders with whipsaws in the price trend. The various levels at which index
may show some bounce back in the coming week are 4675-4538. Level 4810-4840
will now act as a strong resistance for the coming week.
NIFTY - Target Achieved! Now watch 4778…
Week ahead: 22/08/2011 – 26/08/2011
Last week it was predicted that below 5000
there will be free fall right up to 4800.
During the week NIFTY Index broke this 5000 level and reached the target of
4800 level. Down side target of 200 points was achieved in just 2 trading
sessions. What more one can expect from the combined power of Technical
Analysis plus Derivatives Insights?
What happened during the week? Last week I had advised to keep watch on OI for NIFTY 5000 strike price
Put option. Shedding of OI at this strike started on Thursday morning and the
break below 5000 was confirmed. As expected it then broke this level and lost
nearly 70 points till the time of closing. Friday was a gap down opening
because of the panic in the global market.
What’s next? Now the next level to be watched is 4778. This is 38.2% Fibonacci
Retracement level of the entire rally from 2252 to 6338. As per the Technical
Analysis principles this 38.2% level is important correction level. In bull
market it generally finds a support near this level.
If you look at the technical chart, you will notice that NIFTY index
reached very close to this level (4796) and recovered. In a process it has
formed Doji Candle indicating indecision among traders
after reaching the target of 4800. For the coming week keep
watch on 4778 level. If index closes below 4778 then it will send shiver
amongst the market participants. The target below this level in coming days
would be near 4300. This would be the 50% Fibonacci Retracement level for the
index. So, be alert!
NIFTY - Still not out of the Wood!
Week ahead: 16/08/2011 – 20/08/2011
Last week I had given high alert for the market. The target for the NIFTY index below 5200
level was straight up to 5000 level. This call was based on derivatives buildup
and in spite of bullish hammer candlestick on the technical chart. If you
follow only Technical charts then you may get trapped with false signal.
However derivatives indicator acts as a confirmation and helps in identifying
whipsaws on technical chart.
As per the guiding principles of Technical Analysis, whenever any support
is broken, it acts as a resistance on a later date. In other words price always
bounces back to test the level from where it breaks. During the week NIFTY index followed the same
principle. It broke the 5200 support level with huge gap down opening on
Monday. It then bounced back up to 5204 and faced strong resistance. It then
made a low of 4946. You will notice in the chart that It
made multiple attempts to cross pass 5200 but got hammer on every attempt.
During the week market witnessed panic selling from FIIs though there was
no domestic bad news. Good IIP numbers could not help market to boost positive
sentiments.
What’s next?
On Friday
Index has closed at 5072. Though there is a strong Put option build-up at 5000
strike price, there was no further addition of Open Interest on Friday.
Therefore Level 5000 look very fragile. So, during the week keep close eye on
option build up at this strike price. Addition of open interest at 5000 strike
price Put option will confirm the support where as any decline in OI would
confirm the further down side. Below 5000 I expect a free fall right up to
4800. The resistance for the week remains at 5200.
NIFTY - Market on High Alert!
Week ahead: 08/08/2011 – 12/08/2011
Last week I had expressed overall negative bias for the NIFTY index with
resistance at 5550 level. During the week index bounced back up to 5551 and
started declining from there. It kept on hitting the lower targets one by one
and finally crash to 5117 as a reaction to big fall in
What’s next? Technically speaking NIFTY has broken the important trend line support
with gap & heavy volumes. If you
carefully look at the chart you will notice that a candlestick called as
“Hammer”. This can turned into confirmed bullish reversal only if index manages
for close and sustain above this candle. There is a possibility that index will
make an attempt to fill the gap left on Friday. The gap zone is between 5323
and 5229. However, I expect that it will get hammered by the bears as it tries
to fill this gap. The derivatives data buildup is giving some scary pictures. The
NIFTY Option writers have shifted their base to 5000. There is an unwinding of
5100 strike price Puts as well. This means one needs to be very cautious below
5200. Below 5200 my first target would be straight up to 5000. So watch for the
both scenarios during the week and trade accordingly.
Market Stumped by RBI Credit Policy!
Week ahead: 01/08/2011 – 05/08/2011
Last week market was expecting and in fact had already discounted that
RBI likely to hike the repo rate by 25 basis points. Market had shown a good
build-up in anticipation of that and I was expecting the NIFTY target to be
5700-5740-5800. Index did rally up to 5700 prior to the announcement of credit
policy. However, market was stumped by the RBI’s decision to hike key policy
rate - short term lending rate (repo) - by 50 basis points, beating street
expectations of 25 basis points increase to control the inflation.
What happened during the week? As you can see in the technical chart, NIFTY index reached exactly up to
5700 and reversed from there. The expectation was index would breakout from
this resistance but repo rate hike above the expected line reversed the market
sentiments. Immediately after credit policy announcement, there was huge call
writing along with panic unwinding of Put option Open Interest which
immediately confirmed the market reaction. Even 5500 Put option witnessed heavy
decline in OI confirming the break below this level.
What’s next? The technical
chart is showing weakness as long as NIFTY index trades below 5500 mark. After
a sudden dip of 250 points from week’s high, Index has formed a Spinning
Candlestick with long shadows on both sides. This indicates some pause in the
fall before market finds next direction. Close below 5480 can bring down the
index near to 5400.
One can
expect some bounce back from this level if Index drops up to this level. Below
5400 the next support is directly near 5330. This support will be provided by
the gap left on 24 Jun 2011 from where Index rallied up to 5740. The resistance
zone for the week is near 5550. Above this it is likely to face a resistance at
the line highlighted in red colour in the chart
NIFTY – 5800 before Expiry
possible?
Week ahead: 25/07/2011 – 29/07/2011
Last week I had given bearish outlook for NFTY along with good support
near 5500 level. During the week NIFTY index did go down and made a low of
5532.
What happened during the week? I had suggested keeping watch on IO of 5500 Put option. During the week
this built up remained stronger and stronger thus giving indication that market
was very unlikely to break the strong support at 5500. On Friday It witnessed huge unwinding of call options at the same time
heavy build of Put options. On Technical Chart, gap down opening on previous
day followed by gap up opening on next day is an indication of positive opening
for the coming week.
During the week the leaders in the 17-member single currency area decided
to relax lending conditions for
What’s next?
The
trading range for NIFTY index is 5500-5800. It has tried to hit 5500 multiple
times and taken support. Now it is ready to soar higher! For the coming week
just keep watch on 5645 level. This is 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement
level for the fall from 5740 to 5496. Above 5645 the trading level targets are
5700-5740-5800. Level 5800 is the highest level which NIFTY can achieve by end
of July 2011 F&O series. Being expiry week, expect good volatility as index
approaches these levels one by one.
NIFTY – Critical Support near 5500
Week ahead: 18/07/2011 – 22/07/2011
Last week I had written that NIFTY will retest the 200 DMA support near
5580. During the week NIFTY index traded in a range of 5500-5650 and closed the
week exactly at the same support level of 5580. Thus keeping every one guessing
about the coming week!
What happened during the week? Index made a low of 5500 in panic. However, the highest Put option build
up at 5500 strike price was suggesting that the index would find a support at
this level and that’s what actually happened. NIFTY finally closed the week exactly
on 200 DMA line.
What’s next? Last four days data shows that index is not
breaking previous day’s low. This is quite positive
sign. However it must trade above 5580 to re-gather the positive momentum. Momentum
Oscillators such as Stochastic and Money Flow Index are giving bearish signals. Therefore if NIFTY index closes below
previous day’s low then that will be the first alert to go short in NIFTY. Now
5500 is very important level for NIFTY to decide the future trend. There is
highest Put option OI build up suggesting good support. During the
week if you notice unwinding of 5500 Put OI then that will be the confirmation
for traders to go short in NIFTY. On upper side think of going long only above
5600 with a target of 5660-5700 and with a strict stop loss of 5580.
NIFTY – Retest of 200DMA Support near 5580
Week ahead: 11/07/2011 – 15/07/2011
Last week NIFTY index was trading between Trend Line Resistance & 200
day EMA support. I had advised to have patience to
watch if NIFTY index crosses the resistance or support line and sustains
outside the breakout boundaries.
What happened during the week? Monday to Wednesday trading sessions were very lackluster. Index kept on
bouncing back and forth within this trading range. Finally on Thursday it
managed to break the trend line resistance coming from the top and closed above
it. However, it could not sustain above the resistance and has fallen back
inside the same trading zone of 5600-5700. After a seamless rise from the low
of 5196 to 5740 market have started facing selling pressure. During the week
global markets remained positive. FII indicator kept on giving positive
signals. However as I have written last week, market is waiting for the new
trigger for the breakout.
What’s next?
Index
not being able to sustain above resistance line at 5710 indicates there is not
enough strength to continue with the current rally. The long red piercing
candlesticks on Friday indicates bearishness in the beginning of the coming
week. Therefore 5580 which is 200 day EMA is most likely to be tested during
this week. 5600-5580 is a good support level and if index is able to sustain
above this level during this week then it will gather further strength to
continue with the current rally.
The resistance for the coming week is near
5740. Above this level it can go up to 5800. However, as of now strong call
build up at this strike price indicates that this could be the upper target for
July 2011 F&O series. Below 5580 the bears will try to attack furiously.
NIFTY – Between Trend Line Resistance & 200DMA Support
Week ahead: 04/07/2011 – 08/07/2011
Last week I had advised my readers to trade on positive side with a
target of close to 5600. NIFTY index achieved this target on Wednesday itself. In fact it made a
high of 5705 and closed the week at 5627
What happened during the week? As
What’s next? As you can see in the chart, NIFTY is trading between the Trend Line resistance and 200DMA support
line.
Now the market requires new trigger for the
breakout. For NIFTY traders, I would advise to have little patience.
It is better to wait till NIFTY
breaks out of the region highlighted in a circle. If index is able to cross and
sustain above trend line resistance at 5710 then expect another strong
rally of nearly 250-300 points. However, close below 200 DMA at 5578 would
again trigger a fall up to 5300.
NIFTY – Pullback Target 5580 - 5600
Week ahead: 27/06/2011 – 01/07/2011
Last week I had given warning signal below 5300. On Monday itself NIFTY
index broke this level and made a panic low of 5196. It did close below 5320
levels but witnessed a sharp pull back and closed the week at 5471.
What happened during the week? On Monday the news about Indian Government intending to amend the Tax Treaty created a major havoc. However, on Thursday
the IEA (International Energy Agency) announced the release of 60 million
barrels of oil in the coming month. In response to this news, Crude tumbled by
nearly 6% and equity market responded inversely!
It’s interesting to mention that our market started responding in
anticipation of this news on Thursday afternoon itself. Though Europe was in
red,
What’s next? As you can see in the chart, NIFTY has given strong bullish signals for
the coming week. The green candle on Friday has nullified the
bearishness. The derivative data is giving equally positive signals. I won’t be
surprise if we see another gap up opening on Monday. However, the resistance
for the week is in the region of 5580-5600. For NIFTY traders, I would
advise to go long on dips and play on positive side with a target of 5580-5600.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NIFTY – Reached near our target 5350! What’s Next?
Week
ahead: 20/06/2011 – 24/06/2011
As I had written last week, our weekly target for the NIFTY index was near
5350. During the week index reached very close to the target and made a low of 5355.This
level was near the neckline of the Head & Shoulder pattern which was
explained in the previous week. Actually Head & Shoulder pattern is a very
commonly known pattern. However, the key is you should enter into the trade
when formation begins and not after the formation completed. By looking at the
derivatives data it was very evident that the market was likely to go down.
There was a dead cat bounce on Monday & Tuesday which took NIFTY up to its
20DMA at 5520. It was quite noticeable that Put writers used this opportunity
to square up their positions and started heavy Call writing. Not being able to
cross 20DMA and falling below the critical support at 5480 confirmed the slide
up to 5350. It is now very near to the critical support falling in the region
of 5320-5350.
What’s next?
As
shown in the chart, Index has nearly formed a perfect Head and Shoulder pattern. The neckline of this pattern is at 5320-5350. One can
expect some dead cat bounce from this level. However the overall view remains
negative. Any rise would be seen as shorting opportunity by traders.
Warning!
Consecutive close below 5320 will trigger a panic. If this is
broken then the down side target comes to near 5000 level!
NIFTY – Head & Shoulder Pattern Formation near 5350!
Week ahead: 13/06/2011 – 17/06/2011
Las week I had written that 5600 remains the resistance for NIFTY index. It was also predicted that the
Index will break 5500 level and on lower side it can go up to 5400. During the week Index
reached very close to the resistance. It made a high of 5570 and as expected it
broke 5500 level on Friday. It made a low of 5457.
What happened during the week? On Monday & Tuesday market witnessed bullish momentum but the
strength was not enough to cross the mighty resistance coming from 200 day
moving average near 5600. However on Wednesday & Thursday it formed Doji Candles indicating indecision in bullish momentum. The Technical Chart had given
an indication of break below 5500 last week itself and Nifty Index been just
waiting for some reason to achieve this. Poor IIP numbers on Friday was just an
incidental cause for the market to break below 5500.
What’s next?
As shown in the chart, Index has started forming a perfect Head and Shoulder pattern. The neckline of this pattern is at 5350 and the shoulder height
is near 5600. Last week I have already mentioned that the trading range for June 2011
series appears to be between 5300 and 5600. Index has already tested the upper
level multiple times. Now if Index closes below 5480 then most likely it will
go down to the neckline of the Head & Shoulder pattern which is at 5350.
I reiterate that we can see bulls in action only and only if NIFTY index
manages to close above 5600.
NIFTY – 200 DMA @ 5600 remains the resistance
Week ahead: 06/06/2011 – 10/06/2011
Last
week I had predicted positive outlook for the ‘week’ but with a strict target
of 5600 for NIFTY index. During the week NIFTY index kissed this level twice and
collapsed from there, In spite of panic in US & Europe, our market showed
resilience to weak global cues. In fact it kept on rising till it hit the 200
DMA at 5600 Level. Friday was a big day
for the market due to Reliance AGM. However, the news of RIL becoming debt free
this year with free cash at 42393 crores and their
aggressive investment plan did not motivate the market at all. NIFTY
Index not being able cross its 200DMA at 5600 clearly indicates that there is
just not enough strength in Bulls and Bears are overpowering them at every
hurdle.
What’s next? Candlesticks
formation on technical chart has once again given a bearish signal for
the coming week. Long red candle formed on Friday has engulfed the previous
day’s green candle completely with long upper shadow. This is a bearish
indication for the market.
During the
week there was heavy build up of Put options till Thursday. But there is a
twist on Friday. Market witnessed heavy unwinding of Put options at 5500 strike
price. This indicates NIFTY index will break 5500 level in the coming week. The
downside target for the week is near 5400. The trading range as per the
derivatives data for June 2011 series appears to be between 5300 and 5600. We
can see Bulls in action only and only if NIFTY index manages to close above
5600.
NIFTY – Positive outlook for the week
Week ahead: 30/05/2011 – 03/06/2011
Last week I had given an alert on NIFTY downside breakout with a target
of 5300. During the week NIFTY index broke down and reached very close to this
target. It made a low of 5328.
What happened during the week? I had advised traders to watch for the unwinding of the open interest of
5400 strike price Put options for the confirmation to go short. During the week
it was seen that there was heavy accumulation of Call options and unwinding of
5400 Put option. This confirmed the break below this
level. Derivatives data provides excellent insights on market movement based on
the Put/Call ratio. It is a Contrarian
Indicator which works on the psychology of the mass. It
reflects what the mass is thinking about the market and you do just opposite of
what majority thinks. After all majority never wins in Stock Market.
What’s next? NIFTY
Candle Sticks chart is giving positive signal for the coming week. NIFTY index
has just kissed and closed near 15:5 Displace Moving Average. This
moving average provides very powerful buy/sell signals. On Monday if Index
manages to close above this average which is at 5473 then it will start
approaching 200DMA near 5600. Hover this level remains a strong resistance in
the coming days. On downside, 5400 looks like a good support. The immediate NIFTY index targets for the
week are 5500-5564. These are 20DMA and 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement levels
respectively. My advise to traders would be play on positive side above 5500.
NIFTY – Trend Line Support Broken!
Week ahead: 23/05/2011 – 27/05/2011
Last week I had written that watch out for 5630 and 5480.
During the week Index gave downside breakout and closed the week exactly near 5480. I had
advised to wait for the breakout either above 200 DMA (5630) or downside
breakout below support line near 5480. During the week NIFTY index broke this
level and made a low of 5400. However, it bounced back from this level and
closed the week exactly on breakout line i.e. 5486 level.
What happened during the week? On Monday the Open & High for NIFTY index was same. It opened near
5540 and could not cross this level during the day. This was the first bearish
signal given by Candlesticks known as bearish Marubozu. Tuesday it broke the Trend Line Support giving confirmed signal for
further downside. My expected level after breaking this critical support is
near 5300. However, the highest Put option buildup which took place on
Wednesday & Thursday at 5400 strike price gave an indication of interim
bounce back from 5400.
As you can see in the chart, on Friday, NIFTY index tried to bounce back
and the same support line has acted as a resistance. The weekly close is
exactly on the support line at 5480.
What’s next? Coming
week is May 2011 F&O series expiry week. Option built up shows 5400 as an
interim support. Monday first half of the trading session will provide cues for
the expiry. If the call option unwinding which started on Friday also continues
on Monday then NIFTY expiry will be near 5600. However this is not an easy task
because the same support line will now act as a resistance. Index must close
above 5520 to achieve this target. For traders, please keep watching option
build up at 5400. It you notice unwinding in Put
option then that will be the first alert and NIFTY will approach towards my
original target of 5300.
NIFTY – Watch out for 5630 & 5480
Week ahead: 16/05/2011 – 20/05/2011
In anticipation of Assembly Elections the market speculations were very
high for the week. However, we had predicted a narrow trading range for NIFTY
Index between 5500 and 5630. During the week market traded very close to this
trading range. It made a low of 5572, made a high of 5604 and closed the week
at 5544. As expected NIFTY index went up but consistently faced resistance near
5600 level. On Friday it made weekly low but took support exactly near trend
line and once again tried to kiss its 200 day moving average.
It was interesting to watch Derivatives data on Friday morning to seek
how assembly election results scared Call Option writers! Their unwinding of
call option gave a confirm signal for bounce back. However, increase in Put
Option build up at 5600 level was clearly indicating that profit booking was
evident at this level.
What’s next? If you look at the technical chart, you will notice that NIFTY trading
range is confined within its trend line support and 200 day moving average. The
200 DMA at 5630 is very crucial for the coming week. If index manages to close above
this then Index will bounce up to 5800 by May F&O expiry on 26th. At
the same time if index closes below the trend line support which is near 5470 then
expect further panic up to 5300. My advice to traders would be – as usual, be patient and wait for NIFTY
to break below trend line support or above 200DMA and take advantage
accordingly.
NIFTY – Resistance Near 5630!
Week ahead: 09/05/2011 – 13/05/2011
Last week I had advised to play on technical levels and to go short below
5700. On Monday morning NIFTY index opened higher near 5775 but could not
sustain and broke 50 DMA in the region of 5700. This was the first trigger for
the down fall. I was expecting some bounce back near its 200 DMA at around 5630
but it was very short lived. Break below 200 DMA is considered as major event
on a technical chart. This triggered a severe fall up to 5444. The heavy call
writing during the week was consistently giving confirmation for further fall
below 200DMA. However, Friday Technical Chart is indicating some up move in the
early next week.
What’s next? It has formed Bullish Candlesticks on Friday closing indicating bounce
back. However, index is trading below its 200 DMA and therefore every rise will
be seen as shorting opportunity by traders. 5630 is a strong resistance for the
coming week. This is also 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of current fall from 5944
to 5444. Support as per derivatives data is near 5500. If NIFTY is able to hold
this level in the coming week then that will be first positive signal for the
market.
NIFTY – Stay Alert below 5700!
Week ahead: 02/05/2011 – 06/05/2011
Last week it was written that NIFTY was gearing up to penetrate through
5900-5940. However there was Doji Candlestick on breakout line indicating
indecision on bullish breakout. During the week NIFTY index tried to cross this
level 3 times but could not succeed to close above 5940.
What happened during the week? After unable to sustain above 5900 level NIFTY started retracing and
made a low of 5706 on Friday. However, it has taken a support at Pattern
Breakout Line and its 50 day moving average. As the new F&O series has just
began it is difficult to draw any firm conclusion from derivates for the coming
week. However option buildup at 5700 and 5800 indicate that these levels will decide
the trend for the coming week.
What’s next? As shown in the chart 5700 level is very important for the coming week.
It has taken support around this level on Friday and will be tested again in
the coming week. If it is able to hold this level then once again NIFTY index
will go up to test 5900. However, break below 5700-5690 would bring down the
index up to 5600 where once again a bounce back is expected. So for NIFTY
traders I would advise to go short only below 5700 and play on positive side above
5800 only. NIFTY index has closed at 5750. So patiently wait for 50 points
breakout on either side and take the positions accordingly.
NIFTY – Bulls struggling hard for breakout
Week ahead: 25/04/2011 – 29/04/2011
Last week we had
said that NIFTY index is most likely to re-test 5744-5662 levels. During the
week NIFTY index went down to re-test these level, made a low of 5694. If you
recollect, I had predicted in the first week as April that “Bulls are back! Last Hurdle 5940”. Now for entire April month bulls have
struggled hard to cross this hurdle but have not succeeded till date. This week NIFTY index closed exactly at the
resistance.
It has formed Doji Candlestick on the breakout line keeping
everyone guessing about what’s next? On Wednesday & Thursday derivatives
data has given positive signals for the coming week. FII
buying pattern indicator is also on positive side. Put/Call ratio has improved from 0.9 to 1.21 which is
again a positive indication.
What’s next? NIFTY index is gearing up
to penetrate thru 5900-5940 bands. If NIFTY index manages to give closing above
this level for two consecutive days then Bulls will take the index up to 6180 and 6300 in no
time. However, please remember next week is an expiry week and derivative data
shows heavy accumulation at 6000 call options. Therefore NIFTY index will find
it hard to cross this level till expiry on Thursday, 28th. The support for the
week is at around 5800, below which bears can attack back.
NIFTY – Retest of 5744-5662
Week ahead: 18/04/2011 – 22/04/2011
Last week I had written that there will be a strong bounce near 5710
level. During the week it made a low of 5735 and bounced back sharply by 189
points. The resistance level predicted for the week was 5900-5940. During the
week NIFTY Index made a high of 5924. It then closed the week at 5815. All
these levels were predicted purely based on Technical Charts & Derivatives
data.
What happened during the week? You will notice in the technical chart that NIFTY Index took support
exactly at its 20 DMA. It recovered by 189 point on Wednesday and once again
kissed the resistance line coming from the previous top. Friday, Infosys
spoiled all the cheer and Index gave up on the previous trading session’s
gains. It’s interesting to note that on Wednesday’s trading session market
moved up with heavy volume but FII & DII net buying was almost nil. This means that the Index stocks were taken up and
other non index stocks were dumped by them.
What’s next? Technical chart is once again showing some weakness for the coming week.
Level 5900-5940 is being tested again and again and unless this level is
crossed Bears will keep on trying to take charge from Bulls. The support for
the coming week is at 5744 followed by 5662. I expect these support
levels will be tested during the coming week.
NIFTY – Expect bounce back near 5710
Week ahead: 11/04/2011 – 15/04/2011
Last week I had said that Bulls are back but they will find hurdle
between 5900-5940 band.
During the week NIFTY index made gallant efforts to penetrate through this band
but could not succeed. The daily highs from Monday to Friday were 5919, 5929, 5944, 5906 & 5913 respectively.
NIFTY index could not cross the trend line resistance zone which as
marked in the previous week’s chart. Though NIFTY struggled to move further,
FII indicator however strengthened during the week.
What’s next? Candle stick chart is indicating a correction in the coming week. NIFTY
support for the coming week is near 5700.
This level coincides with 20 DMA and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the
current rally from 5348 to 5944. The derivative data also confirms the support
near 5700 levels. Option writers have shifted their base to 5700 strike price
Put options and 6000 Call options. It seems like NIFTY index has started
forming a trading range between 5700-6000 for April’11 series.
The next support level below 5700 is 5640. This is 50% Fibonacci
retracement level and 50 day moving average. Therefore
5700-5640 is a good support level to start building fresh long positions. The
resistance remains the same i.e. 5900-5940 bands. IF NIFTY index manages to
close above this then expect a firework!
NIFTY – Bulls are back! Last Hurdle 5940
Week ahead: 04/04/2011 – 08/04/2011
Last week, the headline of our article was “NIFTY – Next milestone 5800”. We had
confidently written that NIFTY will continue with its strong momentum and will
hit 5800 mark. During the week NIFTY hit our target gracefully.
What happened during the week? NIFTY index opened the week on a
positive note.. It just kept on conquering every
resistance. Those who are familiar reading Put / Call options ratios could
easily see that there was a tremendous build on NIFTY Put options and at the
same time Call option writers were covering there positions in panic. This was
a confirmed signal of the market strength. One of the most noticeable things
during the week was FII action. FIIs are aggressive net buyers during this
week. They have given a big +ve signal for the
Market.
What’s next? In a very short span of time NIFTY index have raised from 5348 to 5872
which is nearly 525 points rally. This is a non-stop rally without any red
candle till Thursday. Now the technical indicators are about to enter into
overbought zone. On Friday, Index has formed an indecision Doji candlestick on
the chart. However, the overall momentum is positive and any dip should be an
opportunity to go long. Level 5600 will act as a strong support for positional trade.
The
next hurdle is around 5900-5940 bands. IF NIFTY index is able to cross and close above this then Bulls
will be unstoppable. My next target above this level would be 6180 and then one
more attempt to test 6300 level by April 2011 expiry.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NIFTY – Next milestone 5800
Week ahead: 28/03/2011 – 01/04/2011
The week was fully dominated by Bulls. NIFTY index opened the week near
the support zone made low of 5348. However as expected, it quickly recovered
from this level and started forming Bullish candles on daily technical chart.
Wednesday it formed a long bullish candle followed by gap up opening on
Thursday morning. At the same time record high open interest was added for Put
options on this day. This was a clear indication for market to break all the
technical resistance coming from trend lines and moving averages.
On Friday, NIFTY index has closed decisively above its 200 day EMA. This
is a strong positive signal for the coming week. The derivatives indicate that
the rally started in this week will continue in the coming week as well.
What’s next?
NIFTY index has broken the 5600 barrier and given a break out. On Friday
it has left a gap between 5529 and 5562. So, this gap will now act as a strong
support zone in the coming days. Option buildup shows that for the coming week
NIFTY support is at around 5600. The technical support level is at 5580, which I
suppose is a good level to enter into long position again. For the coming week
NIFTY index is likely to continue with its strong positive momentum. My
upper target for the current pullback is 5800. This is 61.8% Fibonacci
retracement level for the fall from 6178 to 5177 during the month of January
and February 2011. However, coming week
is an expiry week for March 2011 F&O series and therefore one can expect a
good volatility before NIFTY achieves 5800 mark.
NIFTY –
Week ahead: 22/03/2011 – 25/03/2011
Last week the
technical support level given was 5370-5300. During the week it first made a
low of 5373 and bounced back by nearly 165 points. Then it again collapsed and
closed at 5366 which was again very near to the first support level of 5370. On
this Monday it has broken this support therefore it may retest 5300
during this week. However, as indicated earlier 5300 is
a good short term support level and NIFTY can bounce up to 5470 during
this week. Level 5500 is now going act as a strong resistance. So, take
advantage of these levels and play accordingly.
NIFTY - Stuck between 5400 and 5600
Week ahead: 14/03/2011 – 18/03/2011
Last week
I had written that – ‘NIFTY Index is most likely to test 5300-5400 during the
week’. I had also written about a sharp bounce back from these levels. As
expected NIFTY index opened with a downside gap and made a low of 5408 on
Monday itself. It then bounced back sharply and made high of 5563 for the week.
On Friday NIFTY Index again tested this 5400 level and found a support.
During the
week NIFTY index was stuck within 5600-5400 level and kept bouncing back and
forth. NIFTY 200 day EMA is at 5600 so obviously this level is acting as a
strong resistance. Last week it just kissed this level and this week it could
barely reach up to 5563. On lower side it tested previous week’s low near sub
5400. However, on Friday it has formed Doji Candle with long shadows on both
the sides. This indicates indecision for the coming week.
What’s
next? NIFTY 20 Day EMA is near 5470. Index must trade above this level to
again catch up a positive momentum. Above 5470 it is most likely to reach 5600.
The resistance levels are 5566-5600. On down side, as of now there is strong
build up of 5400 strike price Put options followed by 5300 strike. Trend line
support is also near 5300. Therefore once again 5300-5400 zone
is likely to provide good support. NIFTY
support levels are 5370-5300
NIFTY - Last hurdle 200DMA @ 5600
Week ahead: 07/03/2011 – 11/03/2011
Last week
I had written that on budget day if NIFTY index recovers and closes above 5470
then consider as panic is over and a fresh rally would begin. NIFTY index made
a high of 5476 which was very close to the level predicted for the budget day
and collapsed from there. It faced tremendous selling pressure. The budget
cheer was merely washed out towards the end of the session.
However,
market showed strength during the week and has managed to close the week at
5538 which is well above the Budget day high. Market accepted ‘no big news’ as ‘no bad news’ on budget day and it reacted
positively. During the week NIFTY index kept on rallying till it met 200 day
moving average resistance at 5600 level.
What’s
next? Market has reacted positively to the budget and showing strength.
However 200 day moving average near 5600level is going to act as a major hurdle
for NIFTY. The derivatives data is showing strong buildup at 5600 strike price
Call options. So, this level remains as strong resistance for the coming week.
Levels 5300-5400 are most likely to be tested in the coming week and a sharp
bounce back is expected from these levels. Market always becomes very volatile
when it comes near to its 200 DMA. So, delta hedging traders - be aware of
NIFTY and Option Buyers - be ready to mint more money in the coming week.
NIFTY - Only hope is “The Budget Day”
Week ahead: 28/02/2011 – 04/03/2011
Last week I
had warned about Bearish Engulfing with the lower target of around 5200 for
NIFTY Index. During the week it crashed and made a low of 5233. It lost nearly
220 points from previous week’s low and finally closed the week near 5300. The
technical chart was showing this level and “Gadhafi”
just provided a fuel to hit this lower level target for the week.
I had
written about keeping an eye on Open Interest of 5400 Put options. On Wednesday
this number started declining and Derivatives data sent a warning alarm for the
break of 5400 level for NIFTY index. And when it broke this level it triggered
a panic all across. NIFTY index declined by nearly 175 points on a single day!
What’s
next? Everyone’s eye is on union budget. Market is giving warning signal
because of the way sell off happened during the week. Now watch for the level 5170.
If market goes below this level on budget day and closes below then my target
for the March series would be near 4800. At the same time, on budget day
if NIFTY index manages to recover and closes above 5470 then consider as
panic is over and a fresh rally would begin. So, all hope for the Budget Day.
Traders: please be wise and patient and trade on the technical levels rather
than on gut feeling.
NIFTY - Bearish Engulfing
Week ahead: 21/02/2011 – 25/02/2011
Last I had
written that the market is going start the week on positive note. The upper
target levels given were 5561. As anticipated, NIFTY index started the week
with a gap up opening. During the week it bounced back by nearly 300 points. It
made a high of 5599 and then started melting from this intermediate top.
last week’s technical chart I had shown the
Candlesticks Bullish Engulfing pattern and predicted a bounce for the week.
This week I am again showing you the similar Candlesticks chart and you will
take not time to figure out ‘what’s next?’ On this Friday NIFTY Index open
above the previous day and has closed near the previous day’s low. Thus completely engulfing the previous day’s green candle with a
red candle. This is a bearish formation. During the week Derivatives data was showing
5400 level as a good support for NIFTY Index. However, Friday morning this
equation started changing. 5500 strike price Put options witnessed huge unwinding
and sent an alert on Friday closing session. Though NIFTY index bounced back by nearly 300
points during the week, the FII data is still showing the weakness.
What’s
next?: The technical chart indicates
that the week is likely to begin in red. As of now the derivatives data shows
that the NIFTY index is likely to hold 5400 level till F&N expiry on
Thursday, 24th February. So, please keep close eye on the Open Interest of 5400
Put option. Break below 5400 will pull down the Index back to 5200
NIFTY - Positive Signals for the coming week
Week ahead: 14/02/2011 – 18/02/2011
Last week
I had written that the break below 5350 will trigger a non-stop slide up to
5200 and this is what exactly happened during the week. In the beginning of the
week unwinding of 5400 Put option and buildup at 5200 continued. Therefore 5200
level was quite expected. Friday session showed strong recovery from this level
and raised a sign of hopes for the coming week. As I always say when sentiment
reach to its extreme peak market most of the time takes “U” turn. The
sentiments during the week were extremely negative!
Now let’s
take a look at the Technical Chart as well. NIFTY is systematically falling as
shown in the channel. 5200 level coincides with lower support line of the falling
channel. Therefore some bounce was obviously expected from this level.
As shown
in the chart, NIFTY has formed bullish engulfing candlestick on closing basis.
Therefore market is expected to start the week in green. Bank index has already
given very strong positive signal. IT index had formed “Hammer” style
candlesticks which is an early signal of reversal. The confirmation is expected
on Monday trading session. Reality index is at the verge of giving +Ve bounce back signals.
What’s
next? I expect the coming week to begin on positive note. Level 5200 is a good
support zone in coming days. The 1st
resistance will be at 5400-5450 levels. However, NIFTY must break the falling
channel for confirmed reversal. The next resistance after above this channel is
@ 5561
NIFTY - Turning Point @
5380-5350?
Week ahead: 07/02/2011 – 11/02/2011
Last week
we had written that the support level for the week would be around 5350-5380.
During the week NIFTY index made a low of 5370 and closed the week at 5396.
This is exactly near the expected support level. There was a constant fear due
to resurfacing of 2G scam issue,
Why
5380-5350 is important? Level 5380-50 zone is very critical. As you
can see in the chart 5380 is the 61.8% retracement level for the rally which
started from 4786 in June 2010 till 6338 in Nov’2010. 5350 is the level where
market gave a breakout in July 2010 and tested this level multiple times in
August 2010 as a ‘support’. Therefore if NIFTY is able to hold 5380-5350 level
in the coming week then we expect a sharp bounce back in coming days. At the
same time close below 5350 level is likely to trigger a further panic selling
up to 5200.
Market
witnessed unwinding of 5400 strike price Put options on Friday and this base
has started shifting towards 5200. The resistance levels for the week are
5474-5535-5640. For traders, I would advise to open new short positions only
below 5350.
NIFTY Must Hold Support Zone 5350-5380
Week ahead: 31/01/2011 – 04/02/2011
Due to
some technical problem we were unable to update the last week views on our
website. However, the article was published in Informed Investor & Smart
Investment news papers. I also take this opportunity to convey my thanks for
the overwhelming response to Personal Finance & Investment Show at Dadar.
Last week
I had written that Nifty expiry for January 2011 series to hold 5600 and the
series closed at 5604. It then broke this level on Friday and made a low of 5460.
What’s
next: As you can see in the chart, NIFTY index has taken a trend line support
at 5460. The next critical support is at 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at
5380. Therefore some bounce back is expected from 5350-5380 support zones.
NIFTY – Bull or Bear? What’s next?
Week ahead: 24/01/2011 – 28/01/2011
Last week
I had given a Last week I had written about two important levels – 5640 & 5766. It
was also written that there will be a tug of war between Bulls & Bears.
During the week both fought furiously to protect their boundaries. NIFTY index
made a low of 5624 and made a high of 5748 and closed week at 5697. Thus no
clear cut winner for the week. For the whole week NIFTY traded between bearish
Cup & Handle breakout line and its 200 day EMA line. It kept on bouncing
between these two levels indicating no further clear cut directions. The indecision
in the market was confirmed by the small Doji candlestick on Friday. The FII
indicator continued giving weak signals for the coming days. Derivatives data
still shows 5600 as a good support which also coincides with 200 day SMA.
As you can
see in the chart, earlier NIFTY had taken a support at 38.2% Fibonacci
retracement level of the rally from 4786 to 6338. Now it is trading below this
level and the next support level is at 5566. Therefore zone between 5566 &
5600 is very critical for NIFTY index.
What’s
next?: Coming week is an expiry week
for the Jan’11 F&O series. We expect NIFTY to hold 5600 level till expiry. Market
has closed the week without any decision favouring
either bulls or bears. Therefore the NIFTY levels for the coming week would remain
same as last week. NIFTY support is in the region of 5640-5600 and the
resistance for the week is at 5766.
NIFTY – 5700 Broken! What’s Next?
Week ahead: 17/01/2011 – 21/01/2011
Last week
I had given a head line that NIFTY index is most likely to retest the 5700
level. During the week it made multiple attempts to protect this level and
finally broke this level decisively on Friday!
What happened during the week? On Monday
NIFTY index opened at around 5900 and immediately broke 5880 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement
level). During the week there was unwinding of 5800 strike price Put options
and this base started shifting towards 5700. This was a clear cut signal for
the weakness in the market. On Monday and Tuesday FIIs gave an alarming signal
as they were net sellers to the tune of 1000+ crores
on two consecutive days. The volatility during this week was a real thrill.
NIFTY index kept on hammering near 5700 level and was bouncing back sharply to
fall again. However, on Friday it has broken this 5700 level and closed below.
NIFTY index is now on High Alert!
What’s next? As you can
see in the technical chart, NIFTY Index has given bearish Cup & Handle breakout indicating more down side. At the
same time you will also notice that it has just managed to close the week near
its 200 day EMA.
Market
usually becomes very volatile when it reaches near its 200 day moving average.
This is because there is always a tug of war between optimistic (bulls) and
pessimistic (bears)
traders / investors. Those who are optimistic they believes that
200 EMA level as a strong support and therefore buying opportunity. At the same
time pessimistic traders/investors believes in sell off and shorting the market
when it breaks 200 EMA. Therefore consecutive close below 5640 would trigger a first fall up to 5500. Level 5766 is now
going to act as a strong resistance. So, be prepared for the furious battle
between Bulls & Bears during the coming week!
NIFTY – Retest of 5700?
Week ahead: 10/01/2011 – 14/01/2011
Last week
the NIFTY resistance and support levels given were at 6186 and 6070
respectively. The breakout was expected on either side. During the week NIFTY
reached very close to the resistance level making high of 6179 and took the ‘U’
turn. It then broke the support @6070 and started sliding rapidly and closed
the week at the lowest point 5904. If you see the technical chart, on Monday
NIFTY faced the resistance exactly at the resistance line as highlighted in the
chart. Tuesday it confirmed a bearish engulfing candlestick. It then broke the
support level at 6070 and more downside was confirmed. Subsequently it made a
low of 5884 and closed the week at 5904.
The low of
5884 is very close to 61.8% Fibonacci
Retracement level for the rise from 5721 to 6179. Therefore this level is very
important. Derivatives data shows highest accumulation at 5800 strike price Put
options and 6200 strike price call option, which defines a broad trading range
for NIFTY for January 2011 series. Market has already tested a level near 6200
(6179). So, it is likely to test the lower level near 5800.
What’s next? 5880 is
very critical level for the coming week. Break below this would take Index up
to 5800. Currently this is strong support level as per Derivatives data. So,
please keep an eye on Open Interest for 5800 strike price Put during the week.
Increase in Open Interest would confirm the support where as decrease in open
interest would weaken this support. The resistance levels are 5950-5995-6030.
Above 6030 Bulls are likely to take the control in their hand.
NIFTY – Year 2011 Outlook
Week ahead: 03/01/2011 – 07/01/2011
Last week
I had advised to play on a positive side with NIFTY Index target at around 6140. During the week NIFTY kept on
cruising upward, made a high of 6147
and closed the week at 6134!
What’s Next: The
resistance is at 6186.
Crossover will retest the earlier high near 6300 levels. The support for the
week is at around 6070
My all
weekly forecasts are purely based on Technical Analysis. However, there is
always a debate on Technical vs. Fundamental Analysis. The misconception is
that the technical analysis is only for short term views but that’s not true.
In fact long term technical price chart reveals everything about the economy
and company fundamental prospects.
Year 2011 outlook: If you
study the long term price chart, you will notice that stock market undergoes a
major correction in every 6 to 7 years. It corrects by nearly 60 to 65 percent
during its Bear phase. Historical data also show that this bear phase lasts for
around 18 to 24 months. It then witnesses a sharp recovery and gets into
consolidation phase for another 18 to 24 months.
Now let’s
look at the 3 years price chart for NIFTY index. NIFTY corrected by nearly 65%
from its top of 6300 during the bear phase year 2008. It took 15 months for
bottom formation near 2200-2500 levels. Year 2009 witnessed a sharp recovery on
account of political event i.e. congress govt. regaining the power. Year 2010
has been a year for consolidation where NIFTY index kept on moving upward in 3
to 4 months cycles. It is consistently forming higher top / higher bottom
formation.
Now
considering the long term historical data, this consolidation phase would
continue during the year 2011 as well. I expect NIFTY to consolidate within a
range of 5700 – 6950. We are just entering in the middle phase of the Bull
cycle and therefore consider every dip as a buying opportunity during 2011. So,
keep following the channel as shown in the chart.
NIFTY Breakout
Week ahead: 27/12/2010 – 31/12/2010
Last week
I had shown NIFTY forming Symmetrical
Triangle pattern formation and advised to wait for the breakout. During the
week NIFTY has given a bullish breakout and it is expected to move upward in
the coming week.
There are
some important events on the technical chart. During the week NIFTY has broken
the trend line resistance as shown in the chart and managed to survive above
the resistance line. It has also managed to stay above its 20 and 50 day moving
averages.
On Friday
there was heavy Put writing @ 6000 strike price and at the same time there was
unwinding in OTM Call options which are bullish signal for the coming week.
The Global
markets have started giving strong positive signal. US Dow Jones index and
What’s next? I am
positive about the coming week. However the trading range is getting narrower.
The immediate hurdle is at 6070. Crossover would take NIFTY Index to 6140. On
lower side, 5940 is a strong support zone. So, play with positive bias for the
coming week.
NIFTY – Watch out for Triangle Breakout
Week ahead: 20/12/2010 – 24/12/2010
Last week
we had predicted a pullback with an upper level target near 5940. During the week NIFTY behaved
exactly as expected. There was a pullback and NIFTY consistently struggled to
cross this level and finally closed the week at 5948.
As you can
see in the chart, I have just reproduced previous chart with this week data.
During the week NIFTY found a strong resistance near its 20 and 50 day moving
average. It was unable to cross the trend line resistance coming from the top.
NIFTY has
formed a “Symmetrical Triangle”
pattern. Index has closed just on the breakout line keeping everyone guessing
about what’s going to happen during the coming week!
However,
on Friday there was unwinding of 6000 strike price call and heavy Put writing
at 5700-5800 strike prices. FII who were net sellers so far have at least
turned neutral during the week. These are positive signs for the coming week.
What’s next? The
trading strategy for the coming week would be to wait and watch for the close
above the resistance line for the confirmation of breakout. This level is
around 5950-6000. If NIFTY is able to close and sustain above this level then I
expect a rally up to 6180.
NIFTY – Pullback Expected in the Coming Week
Week ahead: 13/12/2010 – 17/12/2010
Last week
we had predicted that the close below 5960 would trigger a fall up to 5690.
During the week NIFTY Index reached very close to our target making a low of
5721.
During the
week NIFTY created whipsaw by breaking 6030 level on Monday intraday session
but could not sustain to close above this level. Therefore it failed to confirm
the upper side breakout. However, on Wednesday it gave a confirmed bearish
signal by closing below 5960 support level.
On Friday it made intraday low 5721 and bounced backed sharply in
anticipation of double digit IIP numbers for October, 2010.
NIFTY has
given some sign of bounce back for the coming week. On Friday market witnessed
unwinding of Call Options and heavy writing of Put Options. This is a positive
sign for the market. However, FII indicator continued giving bearish signal
throughout the week.
What’s next? The
technical chart has formed a bullish ‘piercing’ candlestick pattern indicating
bounce back for the coming week.
However, candlestick signals are usually valid for very short period.
The resistance near 6000 level is still intact. For trading purpose, watch the
NIFTY falling channel as shown in the above chart. 5900-5940 is a resistance
zone for the coming week. Failure to sustain above 5850 will again bring NIFTY
back to 5690. At the same time expect strong bullish sentiments if it crosses
and close above red resistance line.
NIFTY – Back to Square @ 6000! What’s Next
Week ahead: 06/12/2010 – 10/12/2010
For last
week 5730 and 5840 were two important levels for either side breakout. It was
written that - ‘if NIFTY closes above 5840 then Bulls will step in’.
On Monday
NIFTY Index formed bullish ‘Inside Day’ candlestick and on Tuesday it skipped
out of the falling channel and closed above 5840, which was well above the
Falling Channel Line resistance. It also crossed 20 DMA & 50 DMA and on
Thursday & Friday it has managed to survive above these important moving
averages. NIFTY Index reached 6025 and closed the week at 5993
What’s next? The
question is whether this week’s rally is just a pull back of the fall or
resumption of the bullish uptrend? The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the
current fall (6338 to 5690) is at 6090. If index is able to cross this level
during the week then market will make another attempt to touch all time high at
6357 level. However, close below 5960 can trigger a fall to retest 5690 level.
From
trading point of view, 6030 & 5960
are two important levels to decide the next move for the week. Derivative data
is showing buildup at around 6000 and 5800. So during the week keep an eye on
Call & Put options of this strike price. On technical chart, Candlestick
has formed small Doji candles indicating sort of indecision. So it’s wiser to
wait till NIFTY breaks out of 5960 – 6030 range and then take a trading
position accordingly.
NIFTY – More Panic on the Card
Week ahead: 29/11/2010 – 03/11/2010
Last week
we had clearly shown the downside breakout for NIFTY. The downside target for
the week was 5740. During the week It
made a low of 5690 and closed the week at 5752.
I always
state that Technical Chart reveals every thing in advance. Based on Technical
Chart we had given a “High Alert” anticipating some panic. The LIC Housing Loan scam news was flashed on TV channels
and News papers later to trigger the panic. Believe me, that’s the power of
Technical Analysis!
As shown
in the chart, during the week NIFTY has broken the red trend line support which
was provided by low made in May and August 2010. The falling channel marked in
blue colour is clearly visible on the chart. It has
also breached the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement level for the rise from 5349 in
Aug 2010 to 6339 in Nov 2010. This level was at 5725. FIIs are heavy sellers on
account of scam news and global worry created due to South & North Korea
war fear.
What’s next? 5740 is very
critical. Close below 5740 will pull down NIFTY up to 5560! So keep close eye
on the blue channel line highlighted in the chart. The upper band of this
channel is acting as a strong resistance. Close above 5840 is necessary for
Bulls to step in and push back Bears on back foot.
Market on High Alert!
Week ahead: 22/11/2010 – 26/11/2010
Last week we
had cautioned about the Market. During the week Market failed miserably and
NIFTY index made a low of 5860. As per the technical chart, correction was due
and the alleged 2G scam affecting political conditions provided the reason.
On
Technical Chart NIFTY has given downside breakout. On Thursday 5940 support was
broken during intraday and Friday it has closed well below this level. At
present derivatives data indicates some support at 5800 but no robust signals.
News from global market is not supportive.
Indian political scenario is in trembling situation.
What’s next? NIFTY
Index has broken important support level of 5940. If we consider the Fibonacci
Retracement levels of the rally from 5349 to 6338 then the 50% retracement is
at 5840 and 61.8% retracement level
is at around 5725. Level 5940 is crucial for triggering short
covering. Coming week is an expiry week for November 2010 series. So, the
volatility will continue to penalize “disciplined” trades who follow strict
stop loss
NIFTY – Be Cautious
Week ahead: 15/11/2010 – 19/11/2010
Last week we
had written that – ‘NIFTY index most likely to retest 6300 level’. We had also
mentioned that it must sustain above this level for two consecutive trading
sessions for further bullishness. During the week NIFTY retested 6300 mark,
closed above this but could not hold above this level for more than a day. Now
NIFTY has started approaching our lower level target of 5800.
Technically
speaking there was a Gap left at 6033
on 1st Nov 2010. Options data indicates immediate support level at
around 6000 level. 50 Day Moving
average is also come to around 6000. Therefore this 6000-6033 is very important
zone. The next support level comes at around 5940. During the week FIIs have
given some alarming signals. So be cautious during this week.
NIFTY – Bulls or Bear? Watch 5930 – 6070
Week ahead: 01/11/2010 – 05/11/2010
Last week
we had written that 6160 is must for Bulls to come back in action. We had also
highlighted Bearish Candlesticks pattern indicating weakness but with good
support zone at around 5920-5960.
On Monday,
NIFTY Index went very close to the resistance zone i.e. up to 6151 and Bears
took the control back in their hands from there. On Friday NIFTY again went
down exactly in the support zone at 5920-5960 and Bulls took the charge from
there. It made a low of 5938 and bounced back sharply by nearly 100
points. Bulls have managed to close the week above 6000
As you can
see in the chart, NIFTY has formed a “Descending Triangle” pattern on a Technical
Chart. During last few trading sessions, it is repeatedly testing the Support
and Resistance demarcated by this “Triangle”.
During the week it has also broken 13 and 20 day moving averages but
still trading above 50DMA which is at 5900.
What’s next? : Now watch
for 5930 and 6070
levels. If it breaks below 5930 then it would trigger a fall up to our 2nd
target of 5820. As written in this column earlier, this would be 50% Fibonacci
Retracement of the rally from 5348 to 6284.
NIFTY 6160 is must to attract bulls back in action
Week ahead: 25/10/2010 – 29/10/2010
Last week
we had highlighted Bearish Candle Stick pattern formation indicating weakness
in the market. During the week NIFTY Index went down by nearly 100 points. It
made a low of 5967 and mange to close at 6066. During the week NIFTY Weekly
Candlestick chart has confirmed the further correction. The Inverted Hammer
candle at the top followed by Doji with long lower shadow indicates selling.
You will also notice that NIFTY Index has taken support exactly at 10 days
weighted moving average. This level is at around 5960.
The coming
week is an F&O expiry week. There is highest Open Interest at 6200 strike
price Call & 6000 Put options. Therefore NIFTY is likely to be confined
within this range till expiry day. However keep close eye on Put @6000 OI as
there was shedding on OI and therefore this level could break during the coming
week. Now 6160 is a strong resistance zone and close above this level is a must
to get the bulls back in action. At the same time on lower side 5920-5960 looks
good support zone. 5920 level coincides with 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement level
which was given in the previous week.
NIFTY hits close to our 2nd target 6300! What’s
next?
Week ahead: 18/10/2010 – 22/10/2010
Last week
it was written that NIFTY is in correction mode and our ultimate target was
6300. During the week NIFTY index reached very close to our target and made a
high of 6284. NIFTY Future hit 6318. And as expected, after hitting the target
NIFTY started correcting very sharply and came down up to 6050 on Friday. Now as shown in the chart, Thursday &
Friday has formed 2 long red candles which are completely engulfing previous
bullish green candle. This indicates further weakness. However, Its important to note that NIFTY is still above 20 DMA
support line at around 6040.
At the
same time there was further addition of Open Interest for 6000 strike price Put
option. However, shedding of Open Interest of 6000 Put option would confirm
further weakness in the market. So
please keep close eye on Derivatives data for the coming week. Now 6000-6040 is
very important zone. If these levels are broken then I expect a complete
correction of the rally from 5348 to 6284 and the correction levels as per the
Fibonacci Retracement levels would be 5920-5820-5700.
NIFTY in correction mode with strong support @6000
Week ahead: 11/10/2010 – 15/10/2010
Last week
we had written that 6300 is not too far but at the same time one should be
cautious as index starts approaching this level. The support level given for
the week was at 6040. During the week NIFTY index made a high of 6223 and the
low was at 6067. On technical chart NIFTY has entered into a correction mode.
As you can
see in the chart, NIFTY Index has broken a trend line support on Friday.
However, it has managed to hold 6040 level. This is an important level because
NIFTY struggled hard to cross this level two weeks back. This level also
coincides with 13 day EMA where market found a support on this Friday. The
highest accumulation of Put options at 6000 strike price is indicating that
6000 will act as strong support for the October series. PUT/Call ratio indicator is at 0.87. It has
taken a slight ‘U’ turn from the oversold zone indicating the current
correction phase would not last for long. It is interesting to note that though
market has corrected by around 150 points from the top, FIIs were still net
buyers during this week as well.
What’s next? Though
market has witnessed some profit booking in this week, it is still holding
important support levels. For the coming week 6070 & 6165 would be
important levels to watch. Cross over above 6165 would trigger another sharp up
move towards our ultimate target of 6300. Incase of break below 6070 the
immediate support would be 6000 from which a sharp bounce is expected.
NIFTY - Marching towards 2nd Target 6300!
Week ahead: 04/10/2010 – 08/10/2010
Last week
we had written that - there would be lot of volatility on account of expiry
week and every deep will be a buying opportunity with an immediate target of
6300. Thursday was a tensed day due to Ayodhya
verdict. Market did break 6000 level on this day due to some fear factor.
However, stock market gave indications about the verdict in the afternoon
session itself! The news was announced on television channel later in the
evening.
During the
week NIFTY struggled to cross the gap zone at 6045-6054. Some correction was
necessary at this level for market to breath and start marching towards the
next target. Ayodhya verdict fear provided a good
reason for market to correct and start the next up move with more power. Friday
demonstrated the real power of bulls after crossing 6054 level; non stop rally
of 120 points reaching new high of 6152.
At present
FIIs are showering money in
What’s next? NIFTY is
not far off from our second target of 6300. Derivatives data has already given
an indication of reaching this level. However, as written in this column
earlier, 6300 is our ultimate target for the current rally. Level at 6040 can
act as a support for the coming week. I hope that all our readers have taken full
advantage of this rally till now. However, now be cautious if NIFTY hits 6300!
NIFTY – Achieved our 1st Target 6040… What’s Next – 6300?
Week ahead: 27/09/2010 – 01/10/2010
In Last
week when the majority was skeptical about the market, we had confidently given
a headline - “NIFTY marching towards 6040-6300”.
We had written that the immediate target for the week would be 6040 and were
expecting some resistance at this level. During the week NIFTY reached 6037
which was close to our 1st target.
NIFTY faced
resistance at 6040. This is obvious because on 16th Jan 2008 there was downside
breakout with a gap down opening. NIFTY Future left a gap between 6054 and 6045
trading price range and market went on crashing after that. As per Technical
Analysis principals these Gaps are very important events. They act as a Support
& Resistance. This is because people who were trapped at this level would
desperately look for an exit opportunity with the principal amount which was
invested by them earlier.
What’s next? On Friday
we have noticed heavy Put writing at 6000 strike price and at the same time
there was unwinding on Call option side. This is an indication for further bullishness in the market. Close above 6054 would indicate a fresh buying interest
amongst the investors and above this level NIFTY is likely to hit 6300 with the
same speed. The coming week is an expiry week. So, one can expect lot of
volatility. The support for the coming week has now shifted to around 5920
level.
NIFTY – Mirror Image Recovery –
Marching Towards the Target 6040-6300
Week ahead: 20/09/2010 – 24/09/2010
In last
week’s technical chart we had highlighted extremely Bullish Continuation
Pattern and during the week NIFTY soared by whopping 260 points. It conquered
5900 mark seamlessly but Of course there was some drama after hitting 5900
level only to give some false hopes for trapped bears.
Our
readers would remember our forecast three weeks back on “Mirror Image Recovery”. In this article we have predicted that –
If NIFTY sustains its Feb’2008 high then there is a high possibility of
achieving the 6357 level with equal speed!”. During
the week market demonstrated exactly the same. It has already covered 50% of
the target before anybody could even sense about such kind of rally. That’s the
way stock market always behaves. There
is no change in any fundamentals of any company. But still prices have sky
rocketed. It’s all about people sentiments which drive the stock market and
technical chart is just a tool to capture these sentiments. Technical
Analysis – Jai Ho!
Now NIFTY
is finding a resistance at 5900. However, market is still hot. The derivatives
data indicate that if 5900 is broken then the immediate target would be around
6040. The support for the coming week is at around 5780
NIFTY – Gearing to Soar Higher
Week ahead: 13/09/2010 – 17/09/2010
Last week
majority of the people were expecting a deep correction but the headline of our
article was “Bullish Breakout Still
Intact!”
Derivatives
data helps in measuring mass psychology. When market participants are bullish,
speculation in Call Options get too excessive.
When they are bearish, speculation in Puts get excessive. So, if you
want to win in this market then just go against the crowd because most of the
time the market proves the majority wrong!
What happened during the week? On Monday NIFTY opened with a gap
and never looked back during the week. It made a high of 5647 and closed at
5640 with nearly 160 points gain. Now there is an important event on technical
chart during this week. NIFTY has comfortably traded above it’s Feb 2008 high which was at 5545 and closed well above
this level. This is an extremely bullish indication for the market.
What’s next? Though
NIFTY has given extremely bullish signal, it has touched the intermediate
resistance line and therefore some correction is expected on coming
Monday/Tuesday. Level 5545 is going to act as a strong support. The next upper
target for NIFTY Future is 5691-5700. This is the level at which it had opened
on 21st Jan 2008 and had crashed by 775 points on a single day!
NIFTY – Bullish Breakout Still Intact
Week ahead: 06/09/2010 – 10/09/2010
In last
week’s technical chart we had clearly pointed out the support line for previous
bullish breakout pattern. This support level was around 5330. During the week,
NIFTY came very close to this level and bounced back sharply, keeping Bullish
Breakout pattern still intact. As I always say, market deceives the mass.
Majority of the people were thinking that the market is going to enter into
deep correction. But stock market always proves majority wrong!
On Monday
due to positive cues from global market NIFTY opened with a gap and made a high
of 5469. However it could not sustain at the higher level and immediately came
under profit booking pressure. It then made a low of 5349. On Tuesday a bullish ‘hammer’ candlestick was formed indicating
reversal.
What’s next? There is
heavy addition in open interest of NIFTY 5400 Puts, which indicate that this
level will provide strong support for the coming week. On upper side 5550 is
going to act as a strong resistance. 5330 and 5550 are very crucial levels in
coming days. Break below 5330 can
trigger a fall up to 5100 and if NIFTY gives breakout above 5550 then there
will be another big rally.
NIFTY – Market under profit booking pressure!
Weekly Alert: 30/08/2010 – 03/09/2010
Last week
we said, since NIFTY has hit Feb’08 high of 5545, the profit booking is likely
to happen. As anticipated, after kissing 5545 the market came under profit
booking pressure. Market started
correcting immediately after touching Feb’08 high. During the week NIFTY has
broken 20 day moving average and has closed just near its 50 day moving
average. It has also broken the short term trend line support. The FII
indicator which was clearly positive till last week has just turned bearish.
Now if it breaks below 50 day moving average then the first support would be
around 5330.
As highlighted
in the chart, 5330 is an important support level for previous bullish breakout
pattern to remain intact. The break below this would trigger a correction of an
entire rise from 4946 to 5550. The Fibonacci retracements levels for this
correction are 5260-5168-5078. The Resistance for week is at 5453-5488.
NIFTY – Mirror image recovery
Weekly Alert :
23/08/2010 – 27/08/2010
Last week
we had concluded our views saying ‘NIFTY giving positive signals’. During the
week NIFTY broke the psychological barrier of 5500 and it hit February 2008
high which was 5545!
We are
observing one interesting thing about the market since March 2009.
As you can
see in the chart, year 2009 recovery is exactly a mirror image of 2008 fall.
The recovery has been at almost equal speed. However, 2010 has been a year of
lot of struggle for market to move up. Now if it sustains above Feb’2008 high
then can it replicate the remaining part of the mirror image? What I mean is
there is a high possibility of hitting 2008 high of 6357 with the same speed! But
Stock Market is never a smooth ride. Since
it has hit Feb’08 high, the profit booking is likely to happen. Now 5300 has
become a strong support zone to renter incase of correction.
The coming
week is an F&O expiry for August 2010 series. As written in previous
articles, 5600 is the strong resistance till expiry. We expect some firework in
Reliance Industries on account of short covering in this counter.
Reliance broke the “Symmetrical
Triangle”! What’s next?
Weekly Alert :
16/08/2010 – 20/08/2010
Last week we
had said ‘Big Brother – Reliance Industries is in trouble’. We had predicted
this based on Price & Open Interest relationship. During the week Reliance
gave downside breakout. However, the Candlesticks chart has formed an Opening Marabuzo indicating some pullback in next couple of days. The
61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the current fall from 1063 to 970 would be 1007.
At the same time the break below 970 can trigger a further fall up to 925. So
watch out these levels for Reliance Industries during the coming week.
For NIFTY
we were expecting a correction up to 5350. During the week NIFTY went down up
to 5372. On Friday it has closed above
its 20 DMA. FII indicator continued giving +Ve
signals. The Put/Call ratio has slightly improved compared to last week.
What’s next?: NIFTY is consolidating
between 5350 - 5490 and waiting for the breakout for substantial move. There is
heavy accumulation of 5300 Put and 5600 Call which indicates the broad trading
range for NIFTY till F&O expiry for
August 2010 series. For the coming week NIFTY is giving positive signals.
Big Brother is in trouble!
NIFTY struggle continues @ 5440
Weekly Alert :
09/08/2010 – 13/08/2010
Last week we
said we will watch for the break below 5350 or above 5440 to predict the beginning of next cycle. However, NIFTY closed
the week precisely at 5439! This indicates
market is finding it hard to decide the direction. During the week Banking and IT index has given
a break out but has entered into a correction mode to retest the support
levels.
The market
is at its peak but where is the big
brother Reliance Industries? As you can see in the chart, this counter is
forming a “Symmetrical Triangle” pattern on the price chart since last one
year. It’s time for this heavy weight to breakout from this pattern. There is
an increase in Open Interest with fall in share price. This is a bearish
indication indicating build up of short positions in F&O for this counter.
What’s next? : We expect
NIFTY to retest the support level @ 5350 in the coming week. Put/Call ratio is
just below 1.0 which is again a bearish sign. There is a heavy accumulation of
5300 Put indicating 5300 as a strong support level.
Now watch out for 5350 – 5440
Weekly Alert :
02/08/2010 – 06/08/2010
Last week
we had clearly pointed out the bearish indications with the help of technical
chart. We had also written that the support for the week would be around 5350.
Market behaved exactly as per the predictions. During the week NIFTY formed
bearish Head & Shoulder pattern and hit the downside target near to 5350. It
has also breached 20 day moving average and closed below. However, it was able
to hold the important support at 5350.
The other
positive signs were - US DJ index is trading above 10425 which is the trend
decider for
Now, 5350
and 5440 are extremely important levels. Usually when breakout happens, the
prices correct and test the previous resistance level which then acts a support
after breakout. Now it makes sense to have some patience for the coming week.
We will watch the break below 5350 or above 5440 to predict the beginning of
next cycle.
NIFTY – Near the target | what’s Next?
Weekly Alert :
25/07/2010 – 31/07/2010
Last week
in spite of weakness in
During the
week US Dow Jones index has bounced back exactly from 50% Fibonacci retracement
levels and has closed near the trend line resistance level on Thursday. This
index is making bearish lower top & lower bottom formation since May 2010.
So It must close above 10425 to boost the bullishness.
Now record
high open interest at 5500 Call clearly indicates a strong barrier. As you can
see in the technical chart, NIFTY has moved outside Bollinger band which is a
negative sign on technical chart. The resistance is at 5484 and support for the
week is at 5400-5350. Hope all our readers have enjoyed the bull ride till now
but now be careful if 5350 is broken in the coming week!
NIFTY – Gazing at 5500
Weekly Alert : 19/07/2010
– 23/07/2010
In early
June 2010 we had forecasted about the beginning of new bullish cycle with a
target of 5500. Last week we highlighted the positive market symptoms
indicating NIFTY approaching towards this target. As expected market moved up
very fast and reached 5453 level and took a pause.
There is
extraordinarily high open interest accumulation of Call with a strike price
5500. This indicates extreme resistance at 5500 level till July 2010 F&O
expiry. During the week US Dow Jones
index has formed inverted head & shoulder pattern and at verge of decision
making point – i.e. Bullish Reversal or ‘U’ turn. As you can see in the chart
while approaching the target of 5500, it has started forming Head &
Shoulder pattern. So we advise our readers to keep strict stop loss near the
neckline of H&S at 5350 and start booking profits as NIFTY starts heading
towards 5500
NIFTY heading towards @ 5500, but be careful at this level
Weekly Alert :
12/07/2010 – 16/07/2010
Last week
we alerted that if NIFTY breaks 5210 then it could correct further. This was
because channel line and 20DMA was acting as a strong support at this level.
During the week NIFTY Index broke the channel support but NIFTY Future did not
break the support line; however, both managed to stay above their 20 day moving
averages.
Once NIFTY
Index crosses 5370 level and closes above this level then it is likely to hit
our target of 5500 very fast. This could be the ultimate target for the current
cycle. Shedding of Call option of 5200 and 5300 strike prices were noticed
during the week. This indicates further strength in continuation of the up
move. .
NIFTY is in correction phase
Weekly Alert : 04/07/2010
– 08/07/2010
Last week
we had alerted about the price correction. On technical chart the price channel
support was at 5200. During the week NIFTY behaved exactly in the same way. It
took support exactly at 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level @5210 and sharply
bounced by 110 points. You will observe that it took support at lower channel
line and 20 day moving average.
During the week technical
indicators e.g. MACD, Stochastic Oscillators have given bearish cross over
after reaching overbought zone. F&O Put / Call ratio is at round 0.9 which
indicates bearishness. Rise in NIFTY future open interest with falling index
price indicate build up of short positions in F&O.
To sum up,
market is in correction mode and break below 5210 can pull the index down to
our next target i.e. 5164-5117 which is 50% & 61.8 percent Fibonacci
retracement level for the rise from 4967 to 5366.
NIFTY enters into correction mode
Weekly Alert :
28/06/2010 – 02/07/2010
Since last
three weeks we have been saying that NIFTY has started heading upward and will
follow the uptrend as long as it does not break the price channel. However,
last week we also mentioned about some correction during the week before the up
move continues. Market moved exactly in the same manner during the week.
It made a
high of 5366 and started correcting from there. It closed the close at 5268
level indicating some more correction is still pending. Weekly candlesticks
chart for last three weeks has formed bullish hammer followed by two
consecutive bullish candles. This indicates bullishness in the coming weeks.
However NIFTY
is in a correction mode. The Fibonacci retracements levels for the current up
move from 4967 to 5366 are 5212-5164-5117. For the coming week we expect a
strong support in the range of 5200 provided by price channel and 20 day moving
average.
Next cycle begins but correction due in the coming week
Weekly Alert :
21/06/2010 – 25/06/2010
Last week
we had highlighted bullish channel formation. As you can see in the chart,
during the week NIFTY kept on moving up in this channel and reached 5300 mark.
You will also notice that there is a 20 & 50 day moving average crossover
confirming bullishness. Ofcourse moving averages have
a lag and provide signal little late.
After a long break FIIs were net buyers
during the week which is a positive signal. Put/Call volume ratio is around 1.3
which is again a healthy sign. Heavy addition of open interest for 5200 Put
suggests immediate support at this level is also crucial.
NIFTY has started heading upward
and the target for this rally could be around 5500. However, market always
deceives the mass. On Friday it has formed Doji candle with long upper shadow.
This is an indication of some correction from the current levels in the coming
week. The lower line of the channel will be a buying opportunity. We recommend
you to follow this trend as long as it does not break the channel support
highlighted in the above chart.
NIFTY – Beginning
of the next cycle?
Weekly Alert :
14/06/2010 – 18/06/2010
Week before last we saw NIFTY moving outside
the falling channel. We were expecting NIFTY to correct before market starts
moving upward. Market opened with a big gap on account of fall in US markets
but it did not breach the previous week’s low. The short term trend has turned
positive and it is trading well above 200 DMA. MACD, RSI & other technical
indicators are in positive direction.
NIFTY has
started forming upward price channel. It looks like a beginning of 4th
cycle as highlighted in the chart. You will notice that it is continuing the
higher top / higher bottom pattern. The immediate hurdle is @ 5166 which is
61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the fall from 5400 to 4786 in May. The
support level for the coming week is around 5025.
Contact Mihir @ Tel: 24302503 / 9892230682
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