NIFTY – Market
under profit booking pressure!
Weekly Alert:
30/08/2010 – 03/09/2010
Last week we said, since NIFTY has
hit Feb’08 high of 5545, the profit booking is likely to happen. As
anticipated, after kissing 5545 the market came under profit booking pressure. Market started correcting immediately after
touching Feb’08 high. During the week NIFTY has broken 20 day moving average
and has closed just near its 50 day moving average. It has also broken the
short term trend line support. The FII indicator which was clearly positive
till last week has just turned bearish. Now if it breaks below 50 day moving
average then the first support would be around 5330.
As highlighted in the chart, 5330 is
an important support level for previous bullish breakout pattern to remain
intact. The break below this would trigger a correction of an entire rise from
4946 to 5550. The Fibonacci retracements levels for this correction are
5260-5168-5078. The Resistance for week is at 5453-5488.
NIFTY – Mirror image recovery
Weekly Alert : 23/08/2010 – 27/08/2010
Last week we had concluded our views
saying ‘NIFTY giving positive signals’. During the week NIFTY broke the
psychological barrier of 5500 and it hit February 2008 high which was 5545!
We are observing one interesting
thing about the market since March 2009.
As you can see in the chart, year
2009 recovery is exactly a mirror image of 2008 fall. The recovery has been at
almost equal speed. However, 2010 has been a year of lot of struggle for market
to move up. Now if it sustains above Feb’2008 high then can it replicate the
remaining part of the mirror image? What I mean is there is a high possibility
of hitting 2008 high of 6357 with the same speed! But Stock Market is never a
smooth ride. Since it has hit Feb’08
high, the profit booking is likely to happen. Now 5300 has become a strong
support zone to renter incase of correction.
The coming week is an F&O expiry
for August 2010 series. As written in previous articles, 5600 is the strong
resistance till expiry. We expect some firework in Reliance Industries on
account of short covering in this counter.
Reliance broke the “Symmetrical Triangle”! What’s next?
Weekly Alert : 16/08/2010 – 20/08/2010
Last week we had said ‘Big Brother –
Reliance Industries is in trouble’. We had predicted this based on Price &
Open Interest relationship. During the week Reliance gave downside breakout.
However, the Candlesticks chart has formed an Opening Marabuzo
indicating some pullback in next couple of days. The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement
of the current fall from 1063 to 970 would be 1007. At the same time the break
below 970 can trigger a further fall up to 925. So watch out these levels for
Reliance Industries during the coming week.
For NIFTY we were expecting a
correction up to 5350. During the week NIFTY went down up to 5372. On Friday it has closed above its 20 DMA. FII
indicator continued giving +Ve signals. The Put/Call
ratio has slightly improved compared to last week.
What’s next?: NIFTY is consolidating between 5350
- 5490 and waiting for the breakout for substantial move. There is heavy
accumulation of 5300 Put and 5600 Call which indicates the broad trading range
for NIFTY till F&O expiry for August
2010 series. For the coming week NIFTY is giving positive signals.
Big Brother is in trouble!
NIFTY
struggle continues @ 5440
Weekly Alert : 09/08/2010 – 13/08/2010
Last week we said we will watch for
the break below 5350 or above 5440
to predict the beginning of next cycle. However, NIFTY closed the week
precisely at 5439! This indicates
market is finding it hard to decide the direction. During the week Banking and IT index has given
a break out but has entered into a correction mode to retest the support
levels.
The market is at its peak but where
is the big brother Reliance Industries?
As you can see in the chart, this counter is forming a “Symmetrical Triangle”
pattern on the price chart since last one year. It’s time for this heavy weight
to breakout from this pattern. There is an increase in Open Interest with fall
in share price. This is a bearish indication indicating build up of short
positions in F&O for this counter.
What’s next? : We
expect NIFTY to retest the support level @ 5350 in the coming week. Put/Call
ratio is just below 1.0 which is again a bearish sign. There is a heavy
accumulation of 5300 Put indicating 5300 as a strong support level.
Now
watch out for 5350 – 5440
Weekly Alert : 02/08/2010 – 06/08/2010
Last week we had clearly pointed out
the bearish indications with the help of technical chart. We had also written
that the support for the week would be around 5350. Market behaved exactly as
per the predictions. During the week NIFTY formed bearish Head & Shoulder
pattern and hit the downside target near to 5350. It has also breached 20 day
moving average and closed below. However, it was able to hold the important
support at 5350.
The other positive signs were - US DJ
index is trading above 10425 which is the trend decider for
Now, 5350 and 5440 are extremely
important levels. Usually when breakout happens, the prices correct and test
the previous resistance level which then acts a support after breakout. Now it
makes sense to have some patience for the coming week. We will watch the break
below 5350 or above 5440 to predict the beginning of next cycle.
NIFTY –
Near the target | what’s Next?
Weekly Alert : 25/07/2010 – 31/07/2010
Last week in spite of weakness in
During the week US Dow Jones index
has bounced back exactly from 50% Fibonacci retracement levels and has closed
near the trend line resistance level on Thursday. This index is making bearish
lower top & lower bottom formation since May 2010. So It
must close above 10425 to boost the bullishness.
Now record high open interest at 5500
Call clearly indicates a strong barrier. As you can see in the technical chart,
NIFTY has moved outside Bollinger band which is a negative sign on technical
chart. The resistance is at 5484 and support for the week is at 5400-5350. Hope
all our readers have enjoyed the bull ride till now but now be careful if 5350
is broken in the coming week!
NIFTY –
Gazing at 5500
Weekly Alert : 19/07/2010 – 23/07/2010
In early June 2010 we had forecasted
about the beginning of new bullish cycle with a target of 5500. Last week we
highlighted the positive market symptoms indicating NIFTY approaching towards
this target. As expected market moved up very fast and reached 5453 level and
took a pause.
There is extraordinarily high open
interest accumulation of Call with a strike price 5500. This indicates extreme
resistance at 5500 level till July 2010 F&O expiry. During the week US Dow Jones index has formed
inverted head & shoulder pattern and at verge of decision making point –
i.e. Bullish Reversal or ‘U’ turn. As you can see in the chart while
approaching the target of 5500, it has started forming Head & Shoulder
pattern. So we advise our readers to keep strict stop loss near the neckline of
H&S at 5350 and start booking profits as NIFTY starts heading towards 5500
NIFTY
heading towards @ 5500, but be careful at this level
Weekly Alert : 12/07/2010 – 16/07/2010
Last week we alerted that if NIFTY breaks
5210 then it could correct further. This was because channel line and 20DMA was
acting as a strong support at this level. During the week NIFTY Index broke the
channel support but NIFTY Future did not break the support line; however, both
managed to stay above their 20 day moving averages.
Once NIFTY Index crosses 5370 level
and closes above this level then it is likely to hit our target of 5500 very
fast. This could be the ultimate target for the current cycle. Shedding of Call
option of 5200 and 5300 strike prices were noticed during the week. This
indicates further strength in continuation of the up move. .
NIFTY is
in correction phase
Weekly Alert : 04/07/2010 – 08/07/2010
Last week we had alerted about the
price correction. On technical chart the price channel support was at 5200.
During the week NIFTY behaved exactly in the same way. It took support exactly
at 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level @5210 and sharply bounced by 110 points.
You will observe that it took support at lower channel line and 20 day moving
average.
During the week technical indicators e.g. MACD, Stochastic
Oscillators have given bearish cross over after reaching overbought zone.
F&O Put / Call ratio is at round 0.9 which indicates bearishness. Rise in
NIFTY future open interest with falling index price indicate build up of short
positions in F&O.
To sum up, market is in correction
mode and break below 5210 can pull the index down to our next target i.e.
5164-5117 which is 50% & 61.8 percent Fibonacci retracement level for the
rise from 4967 to 5366.
NIFTY
enters into correction mode
Weekly Alert : 28/06/2010 – 02/07/2010
Since last three weeks we have been
saying that NIFTY has started heading upward and will follow the uptrend as
long as it does not break the price channel. However, last week we also
mentioned about some correction during the week before the up move continues.
Market moved exactly in the same manner during the week.
It made a high of 5366 and started
correcting from there. It closed the close at 5268 level indicating some more
correction is still pending. Weekly candlesticks chart for last three weeks has
formed bullish hammer followed by two consecutive bullish candles. This
indicates bullishness in the coming weeks.
However NIFTY is in a correction mode.
The Fibonacci retracements levels for the current up move from 4967 to 5366 are
5212-5164-5117. For the coming week we expect a strong support in the range of
5200 provided by price channel and 20 day moving average.
Next
cycle begins but correction due in the coming week
Weekly Alert : 21/06/2010 – 25/06/2010
Last week we had highlighted bullish
channel formation. As you can see in the chart, during the week NIFTY kept on
moving up in this channel and reached 5300 mark. You will also notice that
there is a 20 & 50 day moving average crossover confirming bullishness. Ofcourse moving averages have a lag and provide signal
little late.
After a long break FIIs were net buyers during
the week which is a positive signal. Put/Call volume ratio is around 1.3 which
is again a healthy sign. Heavy addition of open interest for 5200 Put suggests
immediate support at this level is also crucial.
NIFTY has started heading upward and the target for this
rally could be around 5500. However, market always deceives the mass. On Friday
it has formed Doji candle with long upper shadow. This is an indication of some
correction from the current levels in the coming week. The lower line of the
channel will be a buying opportunity. We recommend you to follow this trend as
long as it does not break the channel support highlighted in the above chart.
NIFTY – Beginning of the next cycle?
Weekly Alert : 14/06/2010 – 18/06/2010
Week before last we saw NIFTY moving outside the falling channel. We
were expecting NIFTY to correct before market starts moving upward. Market opened
with a big gap on account of fall in US markets but it did not breach the
previous week’s low. The short term trend has turned positive and it is trading
well above 200 DMA. MACD, RSI & other technical indicators are in positive
direction.
NIFTY has started forming upward
price channel. It looks like a beginning of 4th cycle as highlighted
in the chart. You will notice that it is continuing the higher top / higher
bottom pattern. The immediate hurdle is @ 5166 which is 61.8% Fibonacci
retracement level of the fall from 5400 to 4786 in May. The support level for
the coming week is around 5025.
NIFTY –
Moves out of Falling Channel
Weekly Alert : 07/06/2010 – 11/06/2010
There was remarkable comeback from the week’s low of 4933. On technical
chart it has created “Three White Soldiers” candle sticks formation. It has
also escaped from ‘Falling Channel’ which was highlighted in the
previous week’s chart and closed above 50DMA at 5134. However the concern was “Volumes”. All the
above mentioned hurdles were crossed without any significant increase in the
volume.
What’s next?
On technical chart NIFTY has
confirmed intermittent bullish reversal pattered by breaking the falling
channel. MACD is showing bullish crossover. RSI is above 50, indicating
strength in the market. However, Market
always does the opposite of what majority thinks. Market may correct up to
5080-5050 before it starts propelling upwards.
NIFTY –
Hoping for the Best!
Weekly Alert : 31/05/2010 – 04/06/2010
For one more week NIFTY struggled between 200 DMA resistance
in the region of 5000 and trend line support at around 4780. It finally broke
the 200 day moving average resistance on Friday and closed above at 5058 level.
However, as you can see in the chart NIFTY
is still inside the falling channel and yet to confirm the reversal. Though
market moved up sharply FII were net sellers through out the week. Market went
up on account of short covering.
The next hurdle is 50 day moving
average at 5100. Two consecutive closes above this level along with good volume
will confirm the positive reversal for NIFTY. Though this is an optimistic
thinking hoping for the best, a Doji candle formed on this Friday indicates
slight indecision among the market participants.
NIFTY at
critical juncture
Weekly Alert : 24/05/2010 – 28/05/2010
NIFTY has broken important 200 day moving average support.
However, it managed to take a trend line support coming from the low of Aug’09,
Nov’09 and Feb’10. The support taken at 4843 also coincides with 38.2%
Fibonacci retracement level for the entire rise from July’09 low of 3919 to the
most recent high of 5400.
NIFTY has formed Triple Top pattern. 200DMA
@ 5000 levels will act as a strong resistance. Heavy 4800 Puts writing on
Friday indicate support at this level till expiry. Watch whether NIFTY can sustain
above 5000 levels or breaks below 4840 to confirm the breakout on either side
Critical
Trend Line & 200DMA support at 16600
Weekly Alert : 17/05/2010 – 21/05/2010
As anticipated we saw dead cat bounce just around 200 DMA
and trend lines support. It then kissed 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at
17390 to fall again.
Now as shown in the chart, Sensex is
below 50 day moving average and ready to test 200DMA one more time. If it
breaks this support level then it will trigger panic selling.
Critical Level for NIFTY: Panic if closes below
4930
Panic
across the Globe
Weekly Alert : 10/05/2010 – 14/05/2010
Last week we said 50DMA support is very crucial and break
below this can trigger a fall. That’s what exactly happened during the week. We
had also warned about Dow Jones sell signal two weeks back itself. Now what’s next?
As you can see in the above chart,
Trend Line support + 200 DMA region at 16600 is very critical. Close below this
will create panic. There is some slight chance of dead cat bounce at 16200.
Critical Level for NIFTY: Panic if closes below
4930
Retesting
50DMA support @ 17375
Weekly Alert : 03/05/2010 – 07/05/2010
Last week we said as per Derivatives data NIFTY support
@5200 and NIFTY actually took support at 5202. Sensex hurdle was at 17900 and
it could reach 17826. This is the power of Technical Analysis. Now what’s next?
As you can see in the above chart,
Market has tested 50DMA support twice. It has now formed a falling price
channel marked with blue lines. The 50DMA support at around 17375 is very
crucial. Break below this can pull down Sensex up to 17135-16850 levels.
Sensex –
Hurdle @ 17900!
Weekly Alert! 26/04/2010 – 30/04/2010
As a ‘Dow Jones’ effect market opened with a huge gap down in
the last week and found support at 50 day moving average. As highlighted in the
below chart, market is moving in a blue channel. After finding resistance at
18K levels, market has broken short term support level. Sensex must trade above
17900 to return into positive zone. Stochastic Oscillator is giving positive
signals for this week.
As per Derivatives data NIFTY has a strong support at 5200
till expiry.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sell
Signal by US Markets!
Weekly Alert! 19/04/2010
– 23/04/2010
Last week we said market was in overbought zone and profit
booking was clearly visible. After 9 consecutive weekly gains Sensex closed in negative
that too below previous week low. Please see this chart carefully. Index kissed
the resistance level and has taken a ‘U’ turn. Stochastic Oscillator is giving sell
signal. Unwinding of NIFTY Puts at strike price 5200 & 5300 indicates
further weakness.
So be cautious this
week!
Profit booking
visible at 18000 levels
12/04/2010 – 16/04/2010
As predicted, market traded just
above 18006 for less than 30 minutes and dropped from there by more than 300
points. Most of the technical indicators are now in overbought zone. Profit
booking is clearly visible at higher levels. Drop below 17700 Level will
trigger a fall up to 17491 where strong buying support is expected.
As per derivatives data NIFTY has a
strong support @5300 level
Magical Fibonacci
retracement level 18006
05/04/2010 – 09/04/2010
Last week we said resistance at 17775-90. Sensex made a weekly
high of 17794 and lost 306 points from this level. This week market will make
another attempt to cross this barrier. Market is expected to open higher on
Monday morning. However it will be interesting to see whether Sensex can hold
above Fibonacci retracement level 18006 during this week.
As per derivatives data NIFTY has a
strong support at 5200 levels.
Sensex –
Resistance Test of 17775-90 zone
29/03/2010 – 01/04/2010
Last week NIFTY target as per derivatives data was 5300 and
it actually reached 5294.For BSE Sensex, the resistance zone 17775-90 is still
intact. Watch out for this level during the week. As per last 8 months pattern
i.e. Aug’09 market has been moving in a range and now nearing to the bi-monthly
top and likely to follow the pattern of profit booking unless index is able to
cross 17800 levels decisively.
Sensex –
Strong resistance @ Sensex 17775-90 Zone
22/03/2010 – 26/03/2010
Last week’s technical chart was showing positive bias and
Sensex did go up and touched 17600 levels. We have been on positive side since
16200 levels but now it time to be cautious. Sensex 17775-90 level is a strong
resistance level. Moving averages have technically given a buy signal. However
we expect profit booking at the said levels. Derivatives data indicates it is
difficult for NIFTY to cross 5300 mark before expiry day on this Thursday, 25th.
Sensex -
Positive bias on Technical Chart…
15/03/2010 – 19/03/2010
Last week’s technical chart was showing indecision among
market participants and BSE Sensex actually hovered within a small range 17028
– 17244. Now as long as it is able to hold 61.8% Fibonacci level at 16970 the
bias will remain positive. Heavy put
writing at NIFTY 5000 strike price suggest a strong support at 5000 levels till
F&O expiry for the month. It is
advisable to play with a positive bias as long as upward price channel as
highlighted in the below chart remains intact.
Target
Achieved! What’s next?
08/03/2010 – 12/03/2010
Last week we
highlighted short term breakout with the target of 17000 Sensex levels. This
was achieved during the week and index closed at 16994. However, domestic
institutional investor (DII) continued to be net seller to the tune of 2500 crores. This is a worrying factor. After testing 17000
levels, candlestick chart has formed indecision formation on the chart. Technically
speaking Index has closed above 61.8% Fibonacci levels at 16970. However heavy
call writing at NIFTY 5100 strike price suggests a strong resistance at this
level. Monday closing will decide the further direction. 50 Day moving average
support at 16800 is important for this week.
Has
budget really given Thumps Up to market?
02/03/2010 – 05/03/2010
Every one is
confidently saying that Budget gave thumps up to the market. However, we saw a
lack of confidence among domestic institutional investors, which create a doubt
about the budget day show. Technically
market has given short term breakout. One more close above 16430 will push
market to test 16970-17000 resistance zones. This is strong resistance zone. Be
prepared to watch a real thriller at these levels.
Crucial
week ahead…
22/02/2010 – 26/02/2010
As predicted BSE Sensex continued with the bounce and tested
16470-16510 zone. However, after testing these levels it
has moved out of raising channel. More alarming issue during this week was even
domestic institutional investors started offloading their holdings. This week is a very crucial week as Thursday,
25th is F&O expiry day followed by union budget day on Friday,
26th. Market will decide the trend on budget day and will start
moving sharply. Options traders can take straddle/strangle strategies positions
in anticipation of sharp market movements ahead.
Bounce
to continue…
15/02/2010 – 19/02/2010
As expected market showed some bounce and reached to our
last week’s target of 16200. Now, 16500 is a next level to watch. Fibonacci
retracement (38.2%) and 20 day moving average around 16470-16510 will act as a
strong resistance zone. The FII indicator continues giving scary signals. So be
cautious.
Dead cat bounce?
08/02/2010 – 12/02/2010
The FII
indicator is giving scary signals. The question is whether market is due for
entire correction of the rally from 8047 to 17790? The support level 15300 is
now very crucial. On Friday Dow Jones recovered 190 points from its low and
closed above 10000 marks. This seems to be a well planned trap for bulls. So be
cautious! This will induce some bounce in Asian markets this week. The upward
correction levels for BSE Sensex are 16200-16500. We still maintain our last
two weeks views.
Chart source:
http://charting.bseindia.com/charting/index.asp
Wait for
the confirmation
01/02/2010 – 05/02/2010
Last Monday we said “Don’t attempt to catch falling knife”
and we all know what happened during the week. Money saved is equivalent to
money earned in the stock market. Again be cautions during this week. It is
advisable to wait till any sign of recovery is seen on the technical chart. The
next support level for BSE Sensex is at around 15350. It is advisable to wait
and enter new long position only after index moves out of falling channel and
FII indicator turns neutral from the current negative zone. The upward retracement
levels for current fall are 16644-16850. The gap left at 17004 will act as a
strong resistance. Keep watching this space for next alert.
Don’t
attempt to catch falling knife…
25/01/2010 9.00 am
Market has broken important support levels. FII indicator
has turned completely negative. As per derivatives data NIFTY 4900 Put is
showing strong buildup which should act as a support at least till expiry. We
may witness a pull back due to short covering towards the expiry. The
resistance is at 17050 and 17200 levels. The immediate support level for BSE
Sensex index is 16550.. However, 16270 levels must be
protected to assume that this is only a correction of rally which started from
4th Nov’09. Market has slipped outside Bollinger band. Its advisable to renter long only after it gets back into
the band and cross the given resistance levels.
Market
tested ‘Resistance turns Support Theory’… Now what’ next?
18/01/2010 9.00 am
Market behaved exactly same as predicted. It just kissed the
‘resistance turned support’ line and bounced back. Our stock specific alerts
were sky rocketing. However, the coming week is not an easy task for the
market. Market is expected to open lower on Monday and close will decide the
direction for this week. Keep watching this space for more alerts.
Chart source: http://charting.bseindia.com/charting/index.asp
Market
to test ‘Resistance turns Support’ theory!
11/01/2010 9.00 am
Hope all our group members minted money on stock specific
action during the weekJ. After giving triangle breakout Index closed above 17500
and sustained above these levels. This is a bullish sign for further up move. However,
market is in minor correction mode and the Fibonacci correction levels are
17327-17184-17041. In a process Sensex will test the resistance turned support
points marked in red circle in the below chart.
Derivatives indicators indicate hurdle at 5330-5400 for
NIFTY till Jan'09 F&O expiry. NIFTY support at 5220 is very crucial for
this week.
04/01/2010 9.00am
Sensex did cross the redline hurdle during intraday but
still not able to close above 17500. We reiterate – Sensex must close above
@17500 with volumes for at least two consecutive days for market to propel
higher. Market has given technical pattern breakout call ‘symmetrical
triangle’. However, 17300 levels must be protected on closing basis for this
breakout to be successful. So be careful…
Another
Strong Rally… Yes/No?
29/12/09 9.00am
Market has given technical breakout but path ahead is not an
easy task. BSE Sensex must close above the red resistance line @17500 with
volumes for at least two consecutive days. The low of 16578 must be protected
for this rally to continue. Any correction up to 16700 is a good buying
opportunity with a stop loss of 16550
Chart Source: http://charting.bseindia.com/charting/index.asp
Christmas
Bonanza
“U” Turn at Fibonacci
61.8% Retracement Level...
25/12/09 9.00pm
As expected, Market went down further on Monday but NIFTY
took U turn on Tuesday. This was confirmed on Wednesday morning when it moved
above 50 day moving average. Our alert technical analyst caught this move early
and alerted our reader to grab the opportunity. The technical target of 5181
was achieved on last working day of the week just before closing. This is the
power of technical analysis! Hope all our readers enjoyed the blast and minted
money during this week. Keep watching this place for next update…
Our intraday alert at 11.06 AM on
Wednesday:
|
12/23/2009 |
11:06 AM |
NIFTY 5063 S/L 5035 Target 5111,5158 5181 |
Alert! Watch out for triangle breakout
21/12/09 9.00 am
BSE Sensex has given downside breakout by closing below the trend
line support and 50 day moving average. It has closed outside the triangle
pattern formation which was highlighted in last week’s chart. The FII indicator
is turning negative. Derivatives indictor is also favoring bears. One more
close below 16700 will trigger downside fall. So be alert!
Watch
out for triangle breakout
14/12/09 9.00 am
Market did show some upward movement above 17200 but could
not cross the red line resistance marked in the previous week’s chart. Market
is in indecision state and it would be wiser to wait for the breakout and
take position accordingly. Intraday traders may take advantage of 20 DMA and 50
DMA support lines to play their dice.
What’s Next?
Close
above 17200 will witness continuation of rally.
07/12/09 8.00 am
Hope all our
readers enjoyed bungee jump ride from 17290 to 16210 and bounce back to 17361. Now
the support is at around 16925. Break below this level will invite testing of
50 day moving average at around 16770. This must be protected on closing basis
for up move to continue. Close above 17200 will witness continuation of rally. Interestingly,
Dow Jones index of US made 6 attempts in last 9 trading sessions to break 10500
barriers but could not succeed to close above it. So just keep close eye on
this level because if
Bungee
Jumping!
30/11/09 9.00 am
As expected
market went down in deep red on expiry day followed by
Bullish
momentum to continue for short while
23/11/09 8.00am
BSE Sensex
opened below previous day’s low, went down to 16636 to test 50 day moving
average and bounced backed to close above previous day’s high. This price
action has formed a bullish engulfing candle on the technical chart. It is
important to note that index did breach critical level at 16670 during intraday
but managed to close well above 17000 level. There is a minor hurdle at 17100
levels and if Sensex crosses this level on closing basis then the immediate
next level to be tested is 17500. However, we see a limited upside at this
moment as FIIs have started offloading during last
two trading sessions. Therefore one need to be very cautious at higher levels
considering coming week is an expiry week.
NIFTY:
Support @4965-4860, Resistance @ 5115-5182
Alert!
Market is trading below critical level
19/11/2009 2.30pm
Market
is trading below 16800 levels. Be alert if closing is below 16670.
Bulls
are back but keep strict stop loss @16400
12/11/2009 9.00 am
Market
has closed above the critical resistance levels and back in uptrend. There will
be tremendous profit booking pressure as market starts moving up. The previous
resistance levels should now provide strong support for this uptrend. Therefore
it is advisable to be alert if market closes below 16670 and exit with a strict
stop loss at 16400.
Best
of luck to all our readers!
Bull or
Bear? Market at decision making point…
09/11/2009 9.00 am
Market
took support at 50% retracement level i.e. 15330 and bounced back on account of
short covering. It is important to note that there was gap coexisting at the
same level (15275 – 15330). Candlestick
has formed a ‘Doji’ indicating indecision on Friday. FII indicator is once again back to neutral
from –Ve. Derivatives Indicator is showing mild +Ve momentum. However,
Level 16410 & 15275 will decide the
fate of the market.
Wait for
the confirmation before you enter again…
03/11/2009 9.00 am
Once
again Market Rahasya Technical Analysis Team was bang on target in predicting
the market. Index corrected by nearly 1600 points from the top. Money saved by
not buying at higher levels is as good as money earned. The correction levels for
the rise from 13320 to 17493 are 15860-15357-14853 level. Market is trading
below 50DMA indicating negative bias. There could be a dead cat bounce towards
the end of this week to trap innocents. It would be wiser not to catch falling
knife but to wait till market shows some recovery symptoms. Keep watching this
space for next alert…
Alert! Sensex has given down side breakout…
25/10/2009 9.00am
Sensex
has given a downside breakout by closing outside wedge pattern & 20 DMA
line. Market is now due for most awaited correction.
The
intermediate support zone falls at 16500-16250 levels. FII indicator is turning
negative. The 50DMA support at 16250 may act as a bounce back point.
Alert!
Index has closed below 20 Day Moving Average…
11/10/2009 1.00pm
Just
recall our last week views. Sensex dropped and took support exactly at the
trend line support highlighted previously. Now its time to be alert!
· First time since 17th
August’09 Index has closed below 20 Day Moving Average.
· Our FII Indicator which
was positive till last week has turned neutral this week.
· Derivatives Indicator
supporting bullish momentum has turned neutral this week
· Candlestick chart has
already given bearish signal
So
the close below immediate trend line support can pull index down up to 50 DMA
which is at 16000 levels.
.
Sensex
hits 17000 mark but now be cautious… Slippery Way Ahead!
02/10/2009 9.00 pm
We
have been flagging the continuation of uptrend and breakout since a long.
Sensex hit 17000 mark this week. Now it is a time to
be cautious. The market is in overbought zone. Chart is forming “Bump and Run
Reversal” pattern which could be dangerous if it breaches red area marked in
the below chart. Word markets are giving some negative signals. It will be
interesting to watch whether Nifty hold 4900 mark in the coming week
